US Kharg Island Seizure Risks Costly Iran War

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies' (FDD's) Ryan Brobst and Cameron McMillan argue that seizing Kharg Island, Iran's vital oil export hub, incurs significant costs for minimal strategic gains, expanding and extending the war. They state that US forces on the island face considerable threats from Iranian missiles, drones, rockets, and artillery, requiring robust but resource-straining defenses.

Naval assets are exposed to attacks and diverted from reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a key administration goal for stabilizing global energy markets. The authors assert that alternative methods, such as sanctions or disabling infrastructure, achieve oil revenue objectives more effectively.

They conclude that a Kharg Island operation promises neither swift victory nor decisive leverage, instead increasing US casualties and the risk of mission creep into a prolonged war of attrition.