US Risks Prolonged Iran War, Economic Fallout

Peter Mansoor, an ex-U.S. Army colonel, and Alan Eyre, a veteran U.S. diplomat, express concerns about the conflict's trajectory, citing unclear aims, insufficient planning, and overly optimistic assumptions, similar to the Iraq war. President Trump initially suggested a 4-6 week campaign and has signaled an off-ramp by calling off strikes on energy facilities for negotiations, but Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries one-fifth of the world's oil, complicates de-escalation.

The administration, despite White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly's claims of preparedness, faces a dilemma: prolong the war, potentially with ground troops, or risk economic disruption and a symbolic victory for Tehran. Experts like Robert Kaplan and Jen Gavito highlight the miscalculation of Iran's regime resilience and the potential for unintended consequences, including strengthening adversaries like Russia and potentially pushing Iran towards nuclear weapons, as stated by Eyre.

Colin Kahl, a former undersecretary of defense, emphasizes that wars without clear political objectives rarely end well, and the current conflict's shifting rationales from regime change to limiting power projection underscore this risk.