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Geopolitics · Iran · Missiles · Oil
Iran's missile production capacity, despite heavy U.S. and Israeli military strikes, remains a significant regional threat, particularly to oil and gas supplies, though experts believe its long-range capabilities are severely degraded from pre-war levels of 2,500-8,000 missiles.
Gen. Ali Mohammad Naeini, spokesperson for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, claimed continued missile production "even during war conditions," a statement made shortly before his reported death in an airstrike.
Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi warned of global threats to "parks, recreational areas and tourist destinations." U.S. President Donald Trump stated Iran's ballistic missile capacity was "functionally destroyed," while U.S. Gen.
Dan Caine and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed "massively degraded" capabilities, with hundreds of launchers and factories destroyed. Experts William Alberque and Alex Plitsas agree Iran's pre-conflict production capacity, estimated at 300 missiles per month, is now "miles below," possibly down to 40 per month, but emphasize the "non-zero capacity" for drones and smaller missiles, which can "wreak havoc" on energy infrastructure.
Gary Samore believes drone production continues, but not large ballistic missiles. The threat to tourist sites outside the region is considered "very, very low" by Alberque, who suggests Shekarchi's comments refer to international sleeper cells.
Iran Missile Threat Persists, Oil Supply Vulnerable(current)
