Air Power Limits · Geopolitical Risk · Iran Conflict · US-Israel Alliance
The United States has joined Israel's air campaign against Iran, aiming to disrupt its nuclear program.
While US 'bunker buster' munitions can penetrate deep facilities like Fordow, the article argues that air power alone is insufficient to achieve Israel's broader goal of regime change or significantly delay Iran's nuclear ambitions beyond a few months. Historical precedents from World War II, Vietnam, and Serbia demonstrate that aerial bombardment often fails to demoralize populations or achieve political objectives, sometimes even rallying support for the targeted government.
The analysis suggests that achieving regime change or a non-nuclear Iran would likely necessitate a costly and prolonged ground war, drawing parallels to the US experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq. This outcome is something President Trump reportedly seeks to avoid, yet the limitations of air power make a protracted ground conflict a significant risk.
US-Israel Air War Risks Costly Iran Quagmire(current)
