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Central Banks · Geopolitics · Inflation · Oil
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 10-day pause on planned strikes targeting Iran's energy infrastructure, extending the deadline to April 6, 2026, and signaling active diplomatic efforts, which immediately caused oil prices to fall and gold to rebound.
Oil prices, with WTI slipping below $93/bbl and Brent struggling below $100/bbl, declined as the immediate supply shock risk eased. Gold rose 1.1%, stabilizing after recent losses.
Despite the temporary diplomatic window, underlying Middle East tensions persist, evidenced by missile attacks on US-linked assets in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait, and the Pentagon weighing a 10,000 troop deployment. Federal Reserve speakers Cook, Barr, and Jefferson reinforced "higher for longer" interest rate expectations due to persistent inflation pressures from energy shocks, leading Morgan Stanley to delay Fed rate cuts.
Japan's Finance Minister Katayama warned of potential FX intervention to counter yen weakness. China's industrial profits surged 15.2% in January-February, but the outlook faces geopolitical risks and rising input costs, while India cut fuel duties to combat inflation.
Cyclone Narelle disrupted 8% of global LNG supply from Australia.
Oil prices fell, with Brent crude back below $100 after the U.S. sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war and news that mediators are pushing for a meeting this week.
