Hormuz Closure Splits Oil Market, Fuels Global Inflation

Energy agencies estimate this disruption. The futures market, trading Brent at $100-$102 and WTI at $93-$95, anticipates a short-lived crisis, supported by a 400-million-barrel strategic reserve release.

However, the physical market reflects immediate shortages, rerouted tankers, and cancelled war risk insurance, driving Dubai-linked crude to $138-$140 per barrel. This dislocation creates a K-shaped impact: large firms hedge forward at lower prices, while households and small businesses bear the full brunt of spot energy and food inflation.

The crisis extends beyond oil, disrupting global supply chains for fertilizer, sulfur, helium, LNG, and aluminum, threatening food security and high-tech manufacturing. Benchmark urea prices at New Orleans climbed 30 percent in weeks, impacting spring planting.