US Blockade Squeezes Iran Oil Exports, Risks Supply

U.S. officials confirmed the blockade will expand to cover all vessels serving Iran’s oil exports, with the Pentagon prepared to board ships worldwide. Under "Economic Fury," the Treasury Department will not renew a short-term oil waiver expiring Sunday and sanctioned over two dozen entities in an illicit oil-smuggling network.

Industry trackers Vortexa, Kpler, and Energy Aspects predict Iran could hit "tank tops"—running out of storage—in 2-3 weeks. Max Meizlish, a former U.S. sanctions official, states Iran cannot withstand this economically.

Richard Bronze of Energy Aspects notes the blockade aims to neutralize Iran's leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran possesses buffers, including 160 million barrels of oil already loaded on tankers at sea, according to Vortexa, and TankerTrackers.com observed three tankers loading 5 million barrels on Kharg Island.

Kpler reports Iran's March exports were 1.87 million barrels a day, similar to last year. Rystad Energy highlights Iran's previous asymmetrical advantage with its "dark-fleet" trade.

Despite these buffers, Iran's onshore storage, with a capacity of up to 120 million barrels, is over half full and could be exhausted in less than three weeks at current export rates, according to Bronze, risking permanent infrastructure damage if wells are shut in. David Wech, Vortexa’s chief economist, agrees storage will fill quickly if exports cease.