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Energy Supply · Geopolitics · Oil Prices · Strait Of Hormuz
Brent crude oil prices surged near $100 a barrel, briefly topping $101.59, as escalating Middle East conflict widened beyond the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global shipping.
Three commercial vessels were struck in the Arabian Gulf, raising concerns about the critical chokepoint through which a fifth of global oil flows. While prices eased slightly on reports of Iran allowing some ships to cross and the Trump administration considering Jones Act waivers to boost US East Coast supply, signals on a full reopening remain mixed.
The International Energy Agency warned of the largest supply disruption in history, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. projected oil could exceed its 2008 peak of $147.50 if Hormuz flows remain depressed through March.
Despite a historic coordinated release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, including 172 million from the US, analysts believe this is insufficient to offset the estimated 20 million barrels/day disruption from the Strait's closure. Chinese refiners are also canceling refined fuel export cargoes, signaling further strain.
