BP Sees Exceptional Oil Trading Amid Middle East War

This follows a 'weak' performance in the final quarter of 2025 for the division. BP attributes the improved outlook to heightened volatility in crude oil, natural gas, and refined products prices in the latter part of Q1, stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict.

Brent crude prices reached nearly $120 per barrel at one point and currently hover around $100, significantly up from $63.73 per barrel in the previous three months. BP states that every one dollar movement per barrel in oil prices impacts pre-tax operating profits by $340 million (£251 million).

However, net debt is projected to increase to between $25 billion and $27 billion (£18.5 billion to £20 billion) from $22.2 billion (£16.4 billion) in Q4 2025. Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, explains this rise as more cash being tied up in day-to-day operations due to higher oil prices.

Upstream production is expected to be broadly flat, with oil production slightly lower. BP will report its Q1 figures on April 28, the first under new chief executive Meg O’Neill.

Fellow oil major Shell also reported boosted trading but cut integrated gas production guidance due to attacks in Qatar.