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FX Markets · Geopolitics · Inflation · Monetary Policy
This article analyzes the upcoming week's global economic calendar, highlighting that U.S. jobs data and Eurozone provisional inflation figures will be closely monitored to assess the Middle East war's impact on FX and bond markets, with energy price surges already shifting interest rate expectations.
The Middle East conflict and its effect on energy prices are the primary drivers, overshadowing macro data, as stated by Investec economist Sandra Horsfield. In the U.S., the nonfarm payrolls report for March, ADP private payrolls, JOLTS data, and jobless claims will provide insights into the labor market, while rising energy prices have caused markets to drop expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with LSEG data showing a 42% chance of a rate increase in 2026.
The Eurozone will release flash inflation estimates for March, with HSBC analysts expecting a rise due to higher fuel and fertilizer prices and a weaker euro. The U.K. faces expectations of interest rate hikes, with money markets pricing in three quarter-point increases in 2026 and a 73% chance of a Bank of England hike next month, a significant shift from pre-war expectations of rate reductions.
Asian markets will focus on the Bank of Japan's policy summary, Tokyo price data, China's purchasing manufacturers' surveys, and Australia's central bank minutes, all under the shadow of Middle East tensions and rising input costs. Canada's GDP and trade data will signal aggregate demand, while Switzerland's inflation data will be viewed against high energy prices and franc strength.
Indonesia's trade and inflation figures will also be released.
US Jobs, Eurozone Inflation Show War Impact(current)
