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Central Banks · Geopolitics · Inflation · Retail Sales
The upcoming week features the US-Iran ceasefire expiry, a critical Senate hearing for Kevin Warsh, and the release of US Retail Sales data, all set against a backdrop of heightened Middle East tensions and their impact on global inflation and central bank policy decisions.
The two-week US-Iran ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan, expires on April 22, 2026, with key sticking points like uranium enrichment and Strait of Hormuz navigation unresolved, despite President Trump's claim of a deal being "very close." Kevin Warsh's Senate hearing on April 21, 2026, will scrutinize his views on Fed independence, inflation, and financial regulation, complicated by Senator Tillis's opposition to confirmation votes until a DoJ probe into Chair Powell resolves. Bank of America's March consumer checkpoint report indicates firm US retail sales, with total credit and debit card spending per household up +4.3% Y/Y, the strongest pace since early 2023, and gasoline spending jumped 16.5% M/M.
Globally, the PBOC will likely maintain LPRs, while Canadian and New Zealand inflation reports will assess energy price impacts. The CBRT is expected to hike rates by 300bps to 40%, according to JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, though Citi expects a hold.
UK and EZ Flash PMIs will show continued Middle East conflict impact, with stagflation risks noted for the UK.
Asia FX Plummets; Japan CPI Misses BOJ Target
Geopolitical Tensions, US Retail Sales Shape Investor Week(current)
