Gulf Conflict Drives Maritime Insurance Premiums Up 1000%

The widening conflict, which began with Israeli-U.S. airstrikes against Tehran, led Iran to threaten to fire on any ship attempting passage, resulting in damage to at least nine vessels. This spike in premiums, with new rates reaching 1-3% of a vessel's value (up from 0.25%), translates to hull war risk premiums of approximately $7.5 million for a $250 million tanker, according to Jefferies analysts who estimated potential industry losses up to $1.75 billion from seven damaged vessels.

Aon's Stephen Rudman noted the hull war market reacted immediately due to concentrated loss risk, with further rate corrections expected if the situation escalates. Morningstar DBRS indicated reinsurers may respond by raising loss levels or reducing capacity, stressing supply chains as goods are rerouted.

The Trump administration is exploring solutions, including U.S. Navy escorts and political risk insurance from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, engaging with Marsh and Lloyd's, though analysts like Dr. Michel Léonard of the Insurance Information Institute remain skeptical about the clarity and scope of such interventions.