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Energy Security · Geopolitics · Oil Markets · US-Iran Conflict
US President Donald Trump indicated the war with Iran could conclude "soon" but issued severe threats of escalation, including targeting Iran's electricity production, if global oil supplies via the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted.
These statements followed a brief surge in oil prices to nearly $120 per barrel, the highest since 2022, after the selection of hard-line Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's new Supreme Leader. Prices later retreated towards $90, and US stocks rose, reflecting investor hopes for a swift resolution.
However, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps countered, stating Iran would determine the war's end and prevent any oil exports from the region if attacks persist. The conflict has already choked off significant oil and gas supplies, impacting global markets.
Internally, some Trump advisors are reportedly urging a clear exit strategy, concerned about the war's impact on public support and upcoming elections, despite White House denials. The new Iranian leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is perceived as even less compromising than his predecessor, raising concerns about Iran's nuclear ambitions and the potential for prolonged conflict.
