Gold Nears $4,800; Dollar Weakens, Yields Fall

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's openness to negotiations with Lebanon, despite recent conflict, contributed to a slight easing of geopolitical tensions, pushing Oil prices lower to $95.60. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.30% to 98.63, while the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped two basis points to 4.279%.

Economic data showed the US economy grew at a rate of 0.5% YoY in Q4 2025, below analyst estimates of 0.7%, and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index decreased from 3.1% to 3% YoY in February. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 219K, but Continuing Claims fell to 1.794 million, indicating labor market resilience.

Traders' expectations for Fed rate cuts remained at 7.5 basis points of easing by year-end, according to Prime Market Terminal (PMT) data. Upcoming US CPI data for March is projected to show a substantial increase from 2.4% to 3.3% (headline) and 2.5% to 2.7% (core), alongside University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and inflation expectations.

Technically, Gold shows recovery signs, with buyers aiming for $4,857 and potentially $4,900, while a drop below the 20-day Simple Moving Average at $4,690 would open paths to $4,656 and $4,553.