Energy Supply · Geopolitical Risk · Oil Prices · Strait Of Hormuz
Recent U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran have brought marine traffic in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz to a near standstill.
This narrow waterway, crucial for 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, is now deemed too dangerous to traverse, with major shipping companies like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd suspending operations. Analysts warn that a prolonged disruption could lead to oil prices skyrocketing into triple digits, potentially triggering a global recession.
While Iran's capacity to sustain a blockade is debated, the immediate impact has been a sharp spike in oil prices. Existing alternative pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE can only accommodate a fraction of the volume, offering no meaningful substitute for the strait's capacity.
The duration of this conflict is paramount, as even a week-long closure would be historic, with longer periods having epochal implications for energy markets.