Middle East Conflict Plunges OPEC Output 7.9 Million BPD

The steepest production declines were recorded in Iraq, which dropped by 2.56 million bpd to 1.63 million bpd, Saudi Arabia, falling by 2.3 million bpd to 7.8 million bpd, the UAE, decreasing by 1.53 million bpd to 1.89 million bpd, and Kuwait, down by 1.37 million bpd to 1.2 million bpd. Iran's crude oil production also fell by 182,000 bpd to 3.06 million bpd following US-Israeli airstrikes that began on February 28.

Only Venezuela and Nigeria recorded increases, with Venezuela's output rising by 79,000 bpd to 988,000 bpd and Nigeria's by 22,000 bpd to 1.46 million bpd. The conflict has also disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil chokepoint for 20% of global supply.

Despite these supply disruptions, OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 at 1.38 million bpd, projecting total demand to reach 106.53 million bpd, with an upward revision for China in Q1 2026 offsetting a downward revision for Q2 2026 in OECD and non-OECD countries.