Geopolitical Risk Sinks India Stocks, Sensex Plunges

The Sensex has shed roughly 7.5% since the fighting began, and the Indian Rupee hit new lows against the dollar as a flight-to-safety buoyed the greenback. India, a major energy importer with limited strategic reserves, is highly vulnerable to oil price swings, with front-month Brent crude oil futures rising 6.7% to $114.54 a barrel.

Analysts at Elara Capital, led by Gagan Dixit, point out that two-thirds of India's liquefied imports pass via the Strait of Hormuz, adding significant gas supply risk due to halted traffic. Elara analysts estimate India's tax buffer from excise duties on gasoline and diesel can protect retail prices until oil reaches $110 a barrel, but $150 a barrel would cause a politically sensitive inflation shock.

Energy stocks like Hindustan Petroleum (-7.1%), Bharat Petroleum (-5.8%), and Petronet LNG (-6.8%) were broadly lower due to profit margin concerns. Banking stocks also suffered, with HDFC Bank falling 5.1% after its part-time chairman, Atanu Chakraborty, resigned over "personal values," though the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stated no material concerns regarding the bank's conduct or governance, approving Keki Mistry as interim.

Bajaj Finance lost 5.4% and Axis Bank fell 3.7%.