Mosaic Company (The)NYSE: MOS
Materials · Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
$22.88
+1.62%
Vol: 12.0M
Research Digest
Friday, June 19, 2026
Mosaic surged ~8% on June 12 after RBC upgraded to Outperform and China agreed to buy $17B annually in U.S. farm goods; $1B term loan established June 15.
Mosaic Company (MOS) shares jumped 7.6% to $22.69 on June 12, 2026, driven by two catalysts: RBC Capital upgraded the stock to Outperform with a $27 price target, arguing phosphate margin pressure from Strait of Hormuz disruptions and sulphur tightness should reverse into 2027; and China's agreement to purchase at least $17 billion per year in U.S. agricultural goods from 2026-2028, a medium-term demand tailwind for fertilizers. On June 15, Mosaic established a $1 billion Delayed Draw Term Loan. The company's underlying fundamentals remain under pressure — Q1 2026 showed an operating loss of $373 million and EPS of $0.05 vs. $0.23 estimate — with sulphur at record prices forcing withdrawal of phosphate production guidance. The upgrades suggest the market is pricing in a cyclical trough.
Previous Market Intelligence
13 daysJun 18No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
Jun 17No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
Jun 16No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
Jun 15Mosaic shares rose on June 12 as analyst upgrades coincided with a new China agricultural deal, offering relief after a steep year-long decline.Positive▶
The Mosaic Company (MOS) climbed on June 12, 2026, as analyst upgrades coincided with reports of a new China agricultural deal seen as supportive for fertilizer demand. The move offers some relief after a punishing stretch in which the stock fell about 37% over the past year and hit a 52-week low near $20.88. Mosaic's most recent Q1 2026 results (reported May 11) were weak, with a net loss of roughly $257.6 million and an ~89.8% drop in adjusted EPS, prompting the company to withdraw phosphate production guidance and limit capex amid surging sulfuric acid and record sulfur prices. Analyst fair value sits around $26.82, between a bullish $35 target and a cautious $19 target, with RBC and BMO framing negative free cash flow (~-$252.6M) as cyclical and expected to improve into 2027. The bear case is that raw-material cost inflation and soft phosphate markets continue to pressure margins, and the rally may prove a relief bounce rather than a durable turnaround.
Jun 14No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
May 21Mosaic's $0.22 quarterly cash dividend went ex-date on May 21, 2026, amid continued analyst price target cuts from Wells Fargo, CIBC, Mizuho and Barclays following Q1 earnings miss.Negative▶
May 21, 2026 marks the ex-dividend date for Mosaic's $0.22 quarterly cash dividend, returning capital to shareholders amid an otherwise challenging operating backdrop. The company continues to face margin pressure following its May 11 Q1 2026 earnings miss, where EPS of $0.05 fell well short of the $0.23 forecast despite revenue of $3B beating estimates by 3.81%. Elevated sulfur costs ($379/ton in Q1, projected to rise to $540/ton in Q2) and higher ammonia prices are squeezing margins to just 13%. Wells Fargo cut its price target to $25 from $27 (Equal Weight), Barclays lowered to $26 from $31 (Hold), with Mizuho and CIBC also reducing targets into the $25-28 range. Management adjusted 2026 capex guidance to $1.25B reflecting an optimized project portfolio.
May 20Mosaic Q1 EPS collapsed 89.8% on rising sulfur and ammonia costs, prompting full-year phosphate guidance withdrawal and multiple analyst target cuts.Negative▶
Mosaic reported Q1 2026 EPS of $0.05, sharply below the $0.2335 forecast (-78.6% surprise), though revenue of $3B beat estimates by 3.8%. Adjusted Q1 EPS fell 89.8% year over year due to higher phosphate unit production costs driven by sulfur and ammonia input cost spikes tied to a US-Iran supply shock. The company withdrew full-year phosphate production guidance and cut 2026 capex to $1.25B. Mizuho, Wells Fargo, CIBC, and Berenberg trimmed targets into the $25-$28 range, while RBC Capital upgraded to Outperform on May 13. The board declared a $0.22 cash dividend with ex-date May 21. Shares fell to $21.41, near 52-week lows.
May 19Mosaic reported Q1 2026 EPS of $0.05 (vs. $0.23 expected) on rising phosphate input costs, with Wells Fargo cutting PT to $22 on May 14, 2026.Negative▶
Mosaic reported Q1 2026 EPS of $0.05, far below the $0.2335 consensus, though revenue of $3B exceeded the $2.89B estimate. Higher unit production costs in phosphate, driven by sulfur and other inputs affected by a US-Iran conflict supply shock, weighed on margins. Management cut 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $1.25B and reduced production guidance. Shares closed at $21.76 near 52-week lows, down 4.06% post-earnings. Multiple brokers slashed targets into the $25-$28 range: Wells Fargo cut its PT to $22 from $25 on May 14, with Mizuho, CIBC, and Berenberg reiterating Neutral/Hold views citing margin pressure and weaker 2026 fertilizer pricing. The dividend yield stands near 3.8% on the $0.88 annual payout, with an ex-dividend date of May 21, 2026.
May 18No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
May 15Mosaic missed Q1 EPS at $0.05 vs $0.24, cut capex to $1.25B, and withdrew phosphate guidance amid US-Iran impactNegative▶
Mosaic reported Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.05 versus $0.24 consensus on May 11, though revenue of $3.0B narrowly beat $2.93B estimates. The company cut 2026 capex guidance to $1.25B from $1.5B and withdrew phosphate production guidance, citing rising input costs and geopolitical disruption from the US-Iran conflict that affected raw material supply. The stock hit over 5-year lows, trading at $22.24 on May 14. Multiple brokers cut targets to $25-$28 with Neutral ratings - Wells Fargo to $25 from $27, plus CIBC, Mizuho, and Berenberg also trimming. The phosphate supply shock and weak pricing remain key overhangs.
May 14RBC upgrades Mosaic to Outperform on May 13, sparking a 5.2% rally after Q1 miss and phosphate guidance withdrawal.Mixed▶
On May 13, 2026, Mosaic shares surged as much as 5.2% after RBC Capital Markets upgraded the stock to Outperform from Sector Perform amid margin concerns. The upgrade follows Q1 2026 (May 11) results where adjusted EPS of $0.05 missed the $0.24 consensus by $0.17, while revenue narrowly beat at $3.0B vs. $2.93B expected. Mosaic is taking nearly 2 million tons of US phosphate production offline — running Bartow, FL and Louisiana plants at ~50% capacity — due to surging sulfur input costs tied to the Iran conflict. 2026 capex guidance was cut to $1.25B from $1.5B. Before RBC's call, the stock hit 5-year lows as Berenberg cut its target to $28 from $38 (Hold) and Mizuho/Wells Fargo/CIBC trimmed targets into the $25–28 range. Dividend yield ~3.8% with ex-date May 21.
May 13Mosaic missed Q1 badly with adjusted EPS of $0.05 vs $0.24 consensus on May 11, withdrew its FY26 phosphate production guidance, cut capex by $250M, and was hit with multiple analyst target cuts.Negative▶
Mosaic reported Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.05 on May 11, missing consensus by $0.17, though revenue rose 14.4% to $3.0B, narrowly beating expectations. The company withdrew its 2026 phosphate production guidance and executed immediate production curtailments in North America and Brazil to limit exposure to sharply rising sulfur and ammonia costs. Management lowered 2026 capital spending by $250M to $1.25B. Analysts cut targets into the $25-28 range: Wells Fargo to $25 from $27 (Equal Weight), CIBC to $27 from $32 (Neutral), plus cuts from Mizuho and Berenberg. Shares hit a 5-year low and traded down 3.1% on May 8; the stock is off 32.7% over the past year. The dividend yield sits near 3.8% with an ex-dividend date of May 21. Risk: phosphate price gains lag input cost inflation, and geopolitical volatility in fertilizer supply chains squeezes farm margins, capping pricing pass-through.
May 12Mosaic reported a Q1 net loss of $258M ($0.81 per share) on May 11, withdrew 2026 phosphate production guidance, and announced partial U.S. and Brazil curtailments amid a sulfur/ammonia cost shock.Negative▶
Mosaic posted a Q1 2026 net loss of $258 million, or $(0.81) per diluted share, with adjusted EPS of just $0.05 versus rising input costs; revenue grew 14.4% to about $3 billion. The company withdrew its 2026 phosphate production guidance, announced partial curtailments in U.S. and Brazil phosphate operations starting in May, cut 2026 capex by $250M to $1.25B, and is exploring strategic alternatives (including a potential sale of Araxa) for its Brazilian niobium-adjacent assets. The actions matter because sulfur and ammonia inputs hit record prices tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict, squeezing phosphate margins despite firm fertilizer pricing. Bear case: Wells Fargo cut its PT to $25 from $27 (Equal Weight) and Mizuho cut to $27 from $30 (Neutral), and shares are at over-5-year lows as analysts flag continued geopolitical supply risk and farm-margin pressure.
Sector Peers
| Company | Price | Day | 1M | Fwd P/E | Beta | Mkt Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTVACORTEVA | $78.61 | +1.60% | — | 20.8x | 0.56 | $57.4B |
| CFCF | $103.01 | -2.68% | — | 9.5x | 0.39 | $17.0B |
| MOSMOSAIC | $22.88 | +1.62% | — | 11.1x | 0.82 | $6.7B |
| LINLINDE | $512.15 | -0.72% | — | 27.7x | 0.72 | $252.7B |
| NEMNEWMONT | $104.04 | -1.54% | — | 8.6x | 0.48 | $103.6B |
| FCXFREEPORT | $68.84 | -0.32% | — | 15.4x | 1.36 | $87.6B |
Key Fundamentals
RSI (14-Day)
52-Week Range
Moving Averages
Price below 200d MA — bearish structure.