Mosaic Company (The)NYSE: MOS
Materials · Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
$23.43
+6.77%
Vol: 2.1M
Research Digest
Monday, June 15, 2026
Mosaic shares rose on June 12 as analyst upgrades coincided with a new China agricultural deal, offering relief after a steep year-long decline.
The Mosaic Company (MOS) climbed on June 12, 2026, as analyst upgrades coincided with reports of a new China agricultural deal seen as supportive for fertilizer demand. The move offers some relief after a punishing stretch in which the stock fell about 37% over the past year and hit a 52-week low near $20.88. Mosaic's most recent Q1 2026 results (reported May 11) were weak, with a net loss of roughly $257.6 million and an ~89.8% drop in adjusted EPS, prompting the company to withdraw phosphate production guidance and limit capex amid surging sulfuric acid and record sulfur prices. Analyst fair value sits around $26.82, between a bullish $35 target and a cautious $19 target, with RBC and BMO framing negative free cash flow (~-$252.6M) as cyclical and expected to improve into 2027. The bear case is that raw-material cost inflation and soft phosphate markets continue to pressure margins, and the rally may prove a relief bounce rather than a durable turnaround.
Previous Market Intelligence
13 daysJun 14No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
May 21Mosaic's $0.22 quarterly cash dividend went ex-date on May 21, 2026, amid continued analyst price target cuts from Wells Fargo, CIBC, Mizuho and Barclays following Q1 earnings miss.Negative▶
May 21, 2026 marks the ex-dividend date for Mosaic's $0.22 quarterly cash dividend, returning capital to shareholders amid an otherwise challenging operating backdrop. The company continues to face margin pressure following its May 11 Q1 2026 earnings miss, where EPS of $0.05 fell well short of the $0.23 forecast despite revenue of $3B beating estimates by 3.81%. Elevated sulfur costs ($379/ton in Q1, projected to rise to $540/ton in Q2) and higher ammonia prices are squeezing margins to just 13%. Wells Fargo cut its price target to $25 from $27 (Equal Weight), Barclays lowered to $26 from $31 (Hold), with Mizuho and CIBC also reducing targets into the $25-28 range. Management adjusted 2026 capex guidance to $1.25B reflecting an optimized project portfolio.
May 20Mosaic Q1 EPS collapsed 89.8% on rising sulfur and ammonia costs, prompting full-year phosphate guidance withdrawal and multiple analyst target cuts.Negative▶
Mosaic reported Q1 2026 EPS of $0.05, sharply below the $0.2335 forecast (-78.6% surprise), though revenue of $3B beat estimates by 3.8%. Adjusted Q1 EPS fell 89.8% year over year due to higher phosphate unit production costs driven by sulfur and ammonia input cost spikes tied to a US-Iran supply shock. The company withdrew full-year phosphate production guidance and cut 2026 capex to $1.25B. Mizuho, Wells Fargo, CIBC, and Berenberg trimmed targets into the $25-$28 range, while RBC Capital upgraded to Outperform on May 13. The board declared a $0.22 cash dividend with ex-date May 21. Shares fell to $21.41, near 52-week lows.
May 19Mosaic reported Q1 2026 EPS of $0.05 (vs. $0.23 expected) on rising phosphate input costs, with Wells Fargo cutting PT to $22 on May 14, 2026.Negative▶
Mosaic reported Q1 2026 EPS of $0.05, far below the $0.2335 consensus, though revenue of $3B exceeded the $2.89B estimate. Higher unit production costs in phosphate, driven by sulfur and other inputs affected by a US-Iran conflict supply shock, weighed on margins. Management cut 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $1.25B and reduced production guidance. Shares closed at $21.76 near 52-week lows, down 4.06% post-earnings. Multiple brokers slashed targets into the $25-$28 range: Wells Fargo cut its PT to $22 from $25 on May 14, with Mizuho, CIBC, and Berenberg reiterating Neutral/Hold views citing margin pressure and weaker 2026 fertilizer pricing. The dividend yield stands near 3.8% on the $0.88 annual payout, with an ex-dividend date of May 21, 2026.
May 18No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
May 15Mosaic missed Q1 EPS at $0.05 vs $0.24, cut capex to $1.25B, and withdrew phosphate guidance amid US-Iran impactNegative▶
Mosaic reported Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.05 versus $0.24 consensus on May 11, though revenue of $3.0B narrowly beat $2.93B estimates. The company cut 2026 capex guidance to $1.25B from $1.5B and withdrew phosphate production guidance, citing rising input costs and geopolitical disruption from the US-Iran conflict that affected raw material supply. The stock hit over 5-year lows, trading at $22.24 on May 14. Multiple brokers cut targets to $25-$28 with Neutral ratings - Wells Fargo to $25 from $27, plus CIBC, Mizuho, and Berenberg also trimming. The phosphate supply shock and weak pricing remain key overhangs.
May 14RBC upgrades Mosaic to Outperform on May 13, sparking a 5.2% rally after Q1 miss and phosphate guidance withdrawal.Mixed▶
On May 13, 2026, Mosaic shares surged as much as 5.2% after RBC Capital Markets upgraded the stock to Outperform from Sector Perform amid margin concerns. The upgrade follows Q1 2026 (May 11) results where adjusted EPS of $0.05 missed the $0.24 consensus by $0.17, while revenue narrowly beat at $3.0B vs. $2.93B expected. Mosaic is taking nearly 2 million tons of US phosphate production offline — running Bartow, FL and Louisiana plants at ~50% capacity — due to surging sulfur input costs tied to the Iran conflict. 2026 capex guidance was cut to $1.25B from $1.5B. Before RBC's call, the stock hit 5-year lows as Berenberg cut its target to $28 from $38 (Hold) and Mizuho/Wells Fargo/CIBC trimmed targets into the $25–28 range. Dividend yield ~3.8% with ex-date May 21.
May 13Mosaic missed Q1 badly with adjusted EPS of $0.05 vs $0.24 consensus on May 11, withdrew its FY26 phosphate production guidance, cut capex by $250M, and was hit with multiple analyst target cuts.Negative▶
Mosaic reported Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.05 on May 11, missing consensus by $0.17, though revenue rose 14.4% to $3.0B, narrowly beating expectations. The company withdrew its 2026 phosphate production guidance and executed immediate production curtailments in North America and Brazil to limit exposure to sharply rising sulfur and ammonia costs. Management lowered 2026 capital spending by $250M to $1.25B. Analysts cut targets into the $25-28 range: Wells Fargo to $25 from $27 (Equal Weight), CIBC to $27 from $32 (Neutral), plus cuts from Mizuho and Berenberg. Shares hit a 5-year low and traded down 3.1% on May 8; the stock is off 32.7% over the past year. The dividend yield sits near 3.8% with an ex-dividend date of May 21. Risk: phosphate price gains lag input cost inflation, and geopolitical volatility in fertilizer supply chains squeezes farm margins, capping pricing pass-through.
May 12Mosaic reported a Q1 net loss of $258M ($0.81 per share) on May 11, withdrew 2026 phosphate production guidance, and announced partial U.S. and Brazil curtailments amid a sulfur/ammonia cost shock.Negative▶
Mosaic posted a Q1 2026 net loss of $258 million, or $(0.81) per diluted share, with adjusted EPS of just $0.05 versus rising input costs; revenue grew 14.4% to about $3 billion. The company withdrew its 2026 phosphate production guidance, announced partial curtailments in U.S. and Brazil phosphate operations starting in May, cut 2026 capex by $250M to $1.25B, and is exploring strategic alternatives (including a potential sale of Araxa) for its Brazilian niobium-adjacent assets. The actions matter because sulfur and ammonia inputs hit record prices tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict, squeezing phosphate margins despite firm fertilizer pricing. Bear case: Wells Fargo cut its PT to $25 from $27 (Equal Weight) and Mizuho cut to $27 from $30 (Neutral), and shares are at over-5-year lows as analysts flag continued geopolitical supply risk and farm-margin pressure.
May 11Mosaic shares slid 3.1% ahead of May 11 Q1 earnings as analysts slashed price targets and company guided to $350-400M pre-tax charge.Negative▶
Mosaic stock fell to $22.19, down 3.1% on May 8, 2026, with the stock declining 29.1% over the last year. The company will report Q1 2026 earnings before market open on May 11, with analysts expecting a 59.2% decline in EPS to $0.20. Mosaic anticipates a Q1 pre-tax charge of $350-$400M, including $275-300M in asset impairments and the remainder for severance and contract termination costs. Multiple analysts cut targets: Wells Fargo to $25 from $27 (Equal Weight), CIBC to $27 from $32 (Neutral), Mizuho to $27 from $30 (Neutral), citing margin pressure from phosphate costs and weak 2026 pricing.
May 8Reported Q4 2025 EPS well below estimates; projects 59.2% EPS decline YoY for Q1 May 11Negative▶
Mosaic reported disappointing Q4 2025 EPS far short of consensus, with stock down 1.15%. The company faces significant challenges for Q1 earnings (due May 11) with projected 59.2% EPS decline YoY. Wells Fargo cut price target to $25 from $27 and Scotiabank to $33 from $35 in April. Brazil fertilizer market deteriorated in Q4 with intensifying credit constraints and supplier competition from lower-cost Chinese phosphate products. The company announced global 2030 sustainability targets on April 29. Current price $23.11 with P/E 13.90 and 3.7% dividend yield. Analyst consensus Hold with mean target $29.62.
May 7Mosaic idles Brazil mines, takes $350-400M charge; expects 59% EPS decline YoY ahead of May 11 earnings reportNegative▶
Mosaic announced that it will idle its Araxa Mining and Chemical Complex and suspend mining at Patrocinio in Brazil to streamline operations and improve cost efficiency. The company expects a pre-tax charge of $350-$400 million in Q1 2026, including $275-$300 million in asset impairments. These actions will reduce annual phosphate production at Mosaic Fertilizantes by approximately 1 million tons, with the company pursuing sale of Araxa assets. Analysts anticipate a 59.2% EPS decline year-over-year in Q1 with revenue growth of 4.9% to $2.75 billion. Mosaic remains on track with its cost-reduction plan targeting $250 million in run-rate savings by end of 2026, having already achieved $150 million in 2025. Q1 earnings report set for May 11. Analyst consensus is Hold with price target of $31.63 (34.25% upside from current $23.11).
May 6Mosaic Faces Q1 Headwinds, Announces 2030 Sustainability TargetsNegative▶
Mosaic is navigating significant challenges with 24.7% stock decline over past year and Q1 2026 earnings expected to show 59.2% EPS drop. Q4 2025 results fell short of consensus forecasts, prompting 1.15% stock drop. Brazil fertilizer market deteriorated in Q4 with intensifying credit constraints and Chinese phosphate competition pressuring margins. Company announced global 2030 sustainability targets reflecting commitment to environmental stewardship. Multiple analyst downgrades: Wells Fargo cut target to $25 from $27, Scotiabank to $33 from $35, CIBC to $27 from $32, BofA to $29 from $30. Consensus target is $31.63 (up 37.7%).
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Key Fundamentals
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Moving Averages
Price below 200d MA — bearish structure.