Markets
Macro Conditions Index
Economic backdrop for equities — percentile-scored against 5-year history.
CNN Fear & Greed Index
Market sentiment — 7 indicators including momentum, breadth, VIX, put/call ratio. Source: CNN.
Growth
Steady
NFP +265K · UR 4.30%
Inflation
Hot
CPI 3.90% · Oil $95.00
Policy
Tight
FFR 3.63% · 10Y 4.43%
Risk
Elevated
VIX 16.41 · DXY 119.51
Current Backdrop
High rates and tight policy are pressuring valuations, especially speculative growth. Tight policy and elevated rates are creating headwinds — borrowing costs weigh on valuations.
Better for
Quality, cash-flow-rich companies, short-duration assets
Harder for
Speculative growth, unprofitable tech, highly leveraged names
Last updated: Jun 17, 2026 · Source: FRED
Job market fundamentals are solid, with no major stress signals.
Both consumer prices and energy are running hot — inflation is a real problem.
Both short and long-term rates are tight — financing conditions are difficult.
Some caution signals, but no extreme stress in the system.
Equities
Restrictive
Long-duration growth faces valuation pressure. Quality and earnings resilience matter more than multiple expansion.
Rates
Elevated
Front-end remains policy-sensitive. Long-end yields keep the cost of capital high.
Dollar
Firm
A firm dollar tightens global financial conditions and favors defensive positioning.
Commodities
Inflationary
Sticky inflation and elevated energy complicate the disinflation path. Energy names may benefit.
Dollar strength is moderate — neither a headwind nor tailwind.