Markets
Macro Conditions Index
Economic backdrop for equities — percentile-scored against 5-year history.
CNN Fear & Greed Index
Market sentiment — 7 indicators including momentum, breadth, VIX, put/call ratio. Source: CNN.
Growth
Cooling
NFP 0K · UR 4.20%
Inflation
Elevated
CPI — · Oil $71.87
Policy
Tight
FFR 3.63% · 10Y 4.48%
Risk
Elevated
VIX 16.59 · DXY 120.89
Current Backdrop
High rates and tight policy are pressuring valuations, especially speculative growth. Tight policy and elevated rates are creating headwinds — borrowing costs weigh on valuations.
Better for
Quality, cash-flow-rich companies, short-duration assets
Harder for
Speculative growth, unprofitable tech, highly leveraged names
Last updated: Jul 2, 2026 · Source: FRED
Hiring has slowed, but layoff activity remains contained — cooling, not crashing.
Inflation is proving stubborn, limiting the Fed's flexibility to ease.
Both short and long-term rates are tight — financing conditions are difficult.
Some caution signals, but no extreme stress in the system.
Equities
Restrictive
Long-duration growth faces valuation pressure. Quality and earnings resilience matter more than multiple expansion.
Rates
Elevated
Front-end remains policy-sensitive. Long-end yields keep the cost of capital high.
Dollar
Firm
A firm dollar tightens global financial conditions and favors defensive positioning.
Commodities
Inflationary
Sticky inflation and elevated energy complicate the disinflation path. Energy names may benefit.
No significant shifts this week.