Freeport-McMoRan, IncNYSE: FCX
Materials · Copper
$69.17
-1.40%
Vol: 11.0M
Research Digest
Wednesday, June 17, 2026
No significant overnight updates
No material news in the last 48 hours.
Previous Market Intelligence
13 daysJun 16Morgan Stanley downgraded Freeport-McMoRan to Equal Weight on Grasberg Block Cave ramp-up delays and higher Indonesia costs.Mixed▶
Morgan Stanley downgraded Freeport-McMoRan to Equal Weight, tied to expectations of a slower-than-anticipated Grasberg Block Cave production ramp-up and higher operating costs in Indonesia. The call tempers an otherwise strong run, with FCX shares up about 25% year-to-date near $70.68 on elevated copper prices. The downgrade highlights near-term production and cost risks even as copper demand remains robust. Separately, Bernstein raised its price target to $58.50 from $53.50 while keeping a Market Perform rating, reflecting a more cautious valuation stance. Freeport held its annual shareholder meeting on June 10, 2026, electing directors and declaring its quarterly dividend. The key risk is that operational headwinds at Grasberg offset the tailwind from high copper prices.
Jun 15No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
Jun 14No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
May 21Freeport-McMoRan rebounds approximately 3.7% on May 20 amid mixed analyst sentimentNeutral▶
FCX shares climbed to roughly $60.87 on May 20, recovering from a 4.0% decline earlier in the week. Traders remain moderately pessimistic on near-term outlook due to bond yield and inflation concerns, but analysts maintain a Buy consensus citing strong Q1 2026 EPS of $0.57 (beat $0.47 estimate) and the Grasberg recovery roadmap targeting 65% production in H2 2026 and full production by late 2027.
May 20Freeport-McMoRan shares fell 4.0% on May 18 amid valuation concerns and ongoing Grasberg ramp uncertainty, even as analysts hold a Buy consensus.Negative▶
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) shares dropped 4.0% on May 18, 2026 to about $60.50 as GF Value flagged the stock as still overvalued and Morgan Stanley reiterated concerns about Grasberg mine production. FCX has reaffirmed its plan to restore Grasberg to about 65% of production in 2H 2026 and reach full output by late 2027 following the September 2025 mudslide incident. Q1 2026 adjusted net income rose 130% to $830 million on stronger copper and gold prices, beating consensus. UBS raised its target to $74, while Citi cut to $66 and Jefferies cut to $75, both maintaining Buy ratings, citing a roughly $2.2B negative NPV impact from revised Grasberg guidance. The broader 15-analyst consensus remains Buy as of May 16. Macro headwinds from rising bond yields and inflation fears are weighing on the stock alongside copper price volatility.
May 19No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
May 18Freeport-McMoRan shares dropped 4.73% on May 15 to $63.01 despite a Q1 2026 beat ($0.57 EPS vs $0.48 est, +130% adj NPAT to $830M) as Morgan Stanley downgraded on Grasberg ramp concerns while Deutsche Bank raised PT to $72 (from $58) and UBS to $74.Mixed▶
Freeport-McMoRan stock fell 4.73% to $63.01 on May 15, 2026 despite a strong Q1 2026 earnings beat: adjusted EPS of $0.57 (vs $0.48 consensus, +19.78%), net income of $881M, and adjusted NPAT of $830M (+130% YoY) as stronger copper and gold prices offset reduced sales volumes. Management presented at the BofA Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference and reaffirmed Grasberg recovery — guiding to ~65% production in H2 2026 and full output by late 2027 following the September 2025 mudslide. Copper traded at an all-time high of $6.44/lb on supply-squeeze and Iran-war stockpiling. Analyst split: Deutsche Bank raised PT to $72 from $58 (May 15), UBS to $74; Morgan Stanley downgraded citing Grasberg production risk. Bear case: slower-than-expected Grasberg ramp could miss recovery targets; copper price could reverse if China demand falters.
May 15Freeport-McMoRan disputed reports of further Grasberg restart delays, reaffirming a 2027 ramp-up, while Morgan Stanley downgraded and UBS raised PT to $74.Mixed▶
Freeport-McMoRan publicly disputed reports that its Grasberg copper-and-gold mine restart could be delayed into 2028, reaffirming it still expects full production by year-end 2027. The Grasberg Block Cave is in a phased ramp-up after the September 2025 mud rush, with near-term capacity limited pending ore-handling modifications. Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock citing Grasberg production concerns, while UBS raised its price target to $74. Shares broke above the 50-day moving average and rose 2.6% intraday on May 13 toward the 52-week high near $70.96. Q1 revenue was $6.23B with EPS of $0.61, beating $0.48 estimate by 20%. Average analyst target is $65.14.
May 14Freeport-McMoRan disputed Grasberg restart delay reports on May 13 as shares rose 2.6% above 50-day MAPositive▶
Freeport-McMoRan pushed back on reports that the Grasberg copper and gold mine restart could slip into 2028, reiterating it expects full production by end of 2027. The stock rose 2.6% intraday on May 13, 2026, breaking above its 50-day moving average and closing near $68.59. The May 11 rally to $64.37 (+4.4%) followed analyst PT updates from Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas amid favorable copper market dynamics. UBS raised its price target to $74; Morgan Stanley downgraded, citing Grasberg production concerns following the September 2025 mud rush incident. Q1 2026 results were strong: adjusted NPAT up 130% YoY to $830M ($0.57 EPS, vs $0.47 expected), revenue $6.23B vs $5.73B forecast. Growth pipeline advancing includes El Abra EIS submission. Bear case: Grasberg ramp-up risk remains the central question. Consensus PT is $65.14.
May 13Freeport-McMoRan faces mixed analyst views after Morgan Stanley downgrade citing Grasberg ramp-up concerns following 2025 mudslide.Mixed▶
Morgan Stanley downgraded FCX to Equal Weight on expectations of a slower Grasberg Block Cave ramp and higher Indonesia costs, while UBS raised its target to $74. Q1 2026 net income came in at $881M supported by strong Grasberg production. Shares have returned -18.4% over the past month versus the S&P 500 -6.2%, weighed down by the 2025 mudslide, the planned 2026 phased restart, and choppy copper prices amid Middle East tensions. Stock closed around $66.03. Forward earnings outlook remains constructive with a current-quarter EPS estimate of $0.49 (+104.2% YoY) and FY estimate of $2.55 (+44.1% YoY). Zacks rates FCX Hold with a forward P/E of 22.13, slightly below the industry average.
May 12Freeport-McMoRan disputes reports of further Grasberg mine restart delay, reaffirming full production by end-2027 as Morgan Stanley downgrades to Equal Weight at $66.Mixed▶
Freeport pushed back against reports the Grasberg copper-gold mine restart could slip to 2028, reaffirming full production by end-2027 after the September 2025 mud rush incident that cut Q1 2026 Indonesia copper sales to 82M lbs from 290M lbs YoY. The company also secured Indonesian government agreement extending operating rights for the life of the resource, removing a major long-term overhang. Q1 2026 net income was $881M on revenue of $6.23B (vs $5.73B). FCX raised 2026 net unit cost guidance to $1.95/lb from $1.75 due to Grasberg ramp-up. Morgan Stanley downgraded to Equal Weight with PT $66 (from $70 OW); UBS raised PT to $74; Citi cut PT to $66 from $67. Risk: prolonged Grasberg recovery and copper price volatility.
May 11No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
May 8Freeport-McMoran Q1 profits of $881M beat expectations but Grasberg ramp-up guidance cut to 65% H2 2026, 80% by mid-2027; Morgan Stanley downgrades to Equal WeightNegative▶
Freeport-McMoran delivered strong Q1 2026 with $881M net income and $6.23B revenue. However, Grasberg Block Cave restart delayed with reduced guidance: 65% capacity H2 2026, 80% by mid-2027, full capacity late 2027. Morgan Stanley downgraded citing slower Grasberg ramp-up and higher Indonesia costs. UBS raised PT to $74. Analyst consensus remains Strong Buy at $60.73 with significant mixed outlook.
Sector Peers
| Company | Price | Day | 1M | Fwd P/E | Beta | Mkt Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCXFREEPORT | $69.17 | -1.40% | +17.6% | 17.7x | 1.36 | $99.3B |
| LINLINDE | $514.38 | -0.73% | +1.9% | 26.2x | 0.73 | $238.5B |
| NEMNEWMONT | $106.00 | -2.25% | +0.6% | 9.3x | 0.46 | $112.8B |
| SHWSHERWIN | $313.70 | -2.71% | +4.9% | 23.7x | 1.13 | $77.4B |
| ECLECOLAB | $269.04 | -1.76% | +9.5% | 28.0x | 0.91 | $75.7B |
| CRHCRH | $109.53 | -2.93% | +11.0% | 16.4x | 1.19 | $73.1B |
Key Fundamentals
RSI (14-Day)
52-Week Range
Moving Averages
Price above both MAs — bullish structure.