CF Industries Holdings, IncNYSE: CF
Materials · Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
$103.01
-2.68%
Vol: 2.6M
Research Digest
Friday, June 19, 2026
CF Industries reports Q1 2026 net earnings of $615M and JPMorgan raises price target to $115 as geopolitical supply shock tightens nitrogen market.
CF Industries reported Q1 2026 net earnings of $615 million ($3.98 per diluted share) with adjusted EBITDA of $983 million, boosted by a $170 million litigation settlement and $25 million in insurance recoveries. JPMorgan raised its price target to $115 from $94 on June 3, 2026. The global nitrogen market remains tight due to strong demand, geopolitical disruptions — including the Strait of Hormuz closure affecting low-cost supply — and constrained natural gas availability. CF's Blue Point joint venture with JERA and Mitsui (40/35/25% split) will begin construction in 2026, targeting 1.5 million tons of gross low-carbon ammonia capacity starting late 2029. Andrew Scribner was named CFO effective May 26, 2026. Risk: earnings are highly sensitive to natural gas input costs and nitrogen price swings; geopolitical tailwinds could reverse.
Previous Market Intelligence
13 daysJun 18No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
Jun 17No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
Jun 16No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
Jun 15No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
Jun 14No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
May 21CF Industries appoints Andrew Scribner as new CFO effective May 26 and raised by Scotiabank to $120 PT after Q1 EPS beat of $3.98 vs $2.50Positive▶
On May 5, 2026, CF Industries named Andrew T. Scribner (ex-Kimberly-Clark, Gap, Kraft Heinz) as EVP and CFO effective May 26. Q1 2026 results released May 6 showed net earnings of $615M ($3.98 EPS), beating consensus $2.50 by 59%, with revenue of $1.99B vs $1.8B expected and adjusted EBITDA of $983M. Tight global nitrogen supply driven by Middle East LNG disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz is boosting North American producer margins. Scotiabank raised PT to $120 from $115 on May 11 and BofA raised PT to $106 from $103 on May 13. Risk: company flagged reduced full-year ammonia output due to Yazoo City outage.
May 20CF Industries beats Q1 estimates with EPS of $3.98 vs $2.50 expected; new CFO Andrew Scribner named effective May 26.Positive▶
CF Industries reported Q1 2026 net earnings of $615M ($3.98 per share, vs $2.50 consensus, a 59.2% beat) and revenue of $1.99B (vs $1.8B expected). Adjusted EBITDA was $983M, with 99% available ammonia capacity utilization. The nitrogen producer is benefiting from tight global supply and geopolitical disruptions favoring North American producers. The board elected Andrew T. Scribner as EVP/CFO effective May 26. A $0.50 dividend was declared payable May 29. BofA raised the price target to $106 (from $103) on May 13, and Freedom Broker upgraded to Buy from Hold.
May 19No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
May 18CF Industries Q1 2026 beat with $1.99B sales and $615M net income; BofA raised PT to $106, Scotiabank to $120, and Andrew Scribner named CFOPositive▶
CF Industries reported Q1 2026 sales of $1.986 billion and net income of $615 million, with adjusted EBITDA jumping to $983 million from $644 million prior year, boosted by stronger nitrogen pricing and a litigation settlement gain. Andrew T. Scribner was appointed CFO and EVP in late May. The board declared a $0.50 dividend payable May 29. The company returned $1.3 billion to shareholders over the last twelve months and has $1.7 billion remaining on its $2 billion buyback authorization, but flagged reduced full-year ammonia output due to a Yazoo City outage. BofA raised its PT to $106 from $103 on May 13 and Scotiabank raised to $120 from $115 on May 11. Shares traded between $123.31 and $126.46 on May 18.
May 15CF Industries Q1 2026 EPS of $3.98 crushed $2.50 consensus with revenue $1.99B beating $1.8B as new CFO Andrew Scribner appointed and dividend payable May 29Positive▶
CF Industries (CF) reported Q1 2026 net earnings of $615M with EPS of $3.98 vs $2.50 forecast (59.2% beat) and revenue of $1.99B vs $1.8B estimates (10.56% beat) on May 6, 2026. Adjusted EBITDA was $983M. Q1 2026 basic EPS of $3.99 was up from $1.85 in Q1 2025 with revenue rising from $1.66B to $1.99B. Earnings were boosted by stronger nitrogen pricing and a significant litigation settlement gain, while CF continued to commit substantial capital to low-carbon ammonia projects and opportunistic buybacks. The board declared a $0.50/share dividend payable May 29, 2026 to stockholders of record May 15. Andrew T. Scribner was appointed CFO and Executive VP in late May 2026, bringing senior finance experience from Kimberly-Clark, Gap and Kraft Heinz, with the appointment putting focus on capital allocation choices. The stock has gained 9.6% over the past four weeks with rising analyst estimates and trades at $124.06 (market cap $19.06B, P/E 11.28, 1.6% yield). Risk: nitrogen pricing cyclicality.
May 14CF Industries posts strong Q1 with $615M net earnings; new CFO Andrew Scribner effective May 26Positive▶
CF Industries reported Q1 2026 net earnings of $615M and adjusted EBITDA of $983M on revenue of $1.99B with EPS of $3.99, with price improvements adding $401M to EBITDA partly offset by $76M higher gas costs. The board elected Andrew T. Scribner as new EVP and CFO effective May 26 and declared a $0.50/share dividend payable May 29 to record holders May 15. Shares declined ~4.79% post-earnings to $114 on May 7 as Middle East negotiation progress alleviated nitrogen supply shock fears. CF launched a low-carbon ammonia pilot with POET for ethanol. Risk: nitrogen pricing volatility tied to geopolitical and gas price swings.
May 13CF Industries posted Q1 EPS of $3.98 (59% above consensus) and adjusted EBITDA of $983M, named Andrew Scribner CFO effective May 26, but shares fell ~3-5%.Mixed▶
CF Industries Holdings reported Q1 2026 net earnings of $615M ($3.98 EPS) vs. $2.50 consensus and revenue of $1.99B (10.6% beat), with adjusted EBITDA of $983M (vs. $644M prior year), driven by tight nitrogen markets. Despite the strong beat, shares fell 4.79% in aftermarket on May 7 and another 3.1% on May 8 to $115. The board declared a $0.50 dividend payable May 29 and elected Andrew T. Scribner (ex-Kimberly-Clark, Gap, Kraft Heinz) as new CFO effective May 26. CF presented at the BMO Farm to Market Conference May 13.
May 12CF Industries crushed Q1 2026 (EPS $3.98 vs $2.50; revenue $1.99B vs $1.8B) on tight nitrogen markets, named new CFO Andrew Scribner, but stock fell ~4.8% after hours.Mixed▶
CF Industries on May 6, 2026 reported Q1 2026 net earnings of $615M (vs $312M prior year) and adjusted EBITDA of $983M (vs $644M), with EPS of $3.98 crushing $2.50 consensus (+59%) on revenue of $1.99B (+10%). Results were boosted by a $170M litigation settlement from Orica/Nelson Brothers and near-100% ammonia capacity utilization; price improvements added $401M to EBITDA, partially offset by higher natural gas ($4.57 vs $3.68 per MMBtu). The Board appointed Andrew T. Scribner as EVP/CFO effective May 26. A $0.50 dividend is payable May 29. CF announced a low-carbon fertilizer pilot with POET and major ag co-ops. Management sees nitrogen markets staying tight through 2026-27. Shares fell 4.79% to $114.02 after-hours despite the beat.
Sector Peers
| Company | Price | Day | 1M | Fwd P/E | Beta | Mkt Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTVACORTEVA | $78.61 | +1.60% | +7.1% | 20.8x | 0.56 | $57.4B |
| CFCF | $103.01 | -2.68% | +7.2% | 9.5x | 0.39 | $17.0B |
| MOSMOSAIC | $22.88 | +1.62% | +1.3% | 11.1x | 0.82 | $6.7B |
| LINLINDE | $512.15 | -0.72% | +6.0% | 27.7x | 0.72 | $252.7B |
| NEMNEWMONT | $104.04 | -1.54% | +3.2% | 8.6x | 0.48 | $103.6B |
| FCXFREEPORT | $68.84 | -0.32% | -1.4% | 15.4x | 1.36 | $87.6B |
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