Qatar LNG Halt, Hormuz Risks Surge European Gas Prices

Tom Marzec-Manser, Director of Europe Gas & LNG at Wood Mackenzie, stated that Qatar exported 81 million tons of LNG in 2025, and the global balance is now effectively 78 million tons short due to recent events. He expects the price surge to curb demand in parts of South Asia, while weak LNG consumption in China will help the market rebalance.

Wood Mackenzie also anticipates 35 million tons of new LNG production in 2026, which will further aid in covering the supply-demand imbalance. Mehdy Touil, Lead LNG Specialist at Calypso Commodities, noted the Iranian blockade of the Hormuz Strait locked in over 83 million tons of LNG supply, calling it the most significant market shock since Russia halted exports to Europe in 2022.

Touil highlighted East Asia's vulnerability, particularly China, due to its contractual exposure, and mentioned discussions about the EU delaying its planned ban on Russian LNG. Giovanni Bettinelli, an energy consultant from GFB Insight, predicted a rapid tightening of the spot market, especially in Asia, and continued European reliance on spot purchases.

Alex Froley, Senior LNG Analyst at ICIS, emphasized that around 20% of the world's LNG, primarily from Qatar, is west of the Strait of Hormuz, and tankers are already avoiding the strait. He confirmed Europe's TTF gas prices rose sharply to €39 per megawatt-hour from €32, though remaining below 2022 record levels.

Experts agree prolonged disruption will drive sharper price increases and sustained volatility.