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Europe Energy · LNG · Middle East Conflict · Thermal Coal
European utilities and traders are increasing seaborne thermal coal purchases, with S&P Global Energy CERA forecasting incremental gains up to 1 million metric tons in April, as the Middle East conflict drives gas market volatility and revives gas-to-coal switching economics.
This pickup is expected first in spot restocking into Northwest Europe, with market participants stating the impact extends into the third or fourth quarters of 2026 if the conflict and LNG disruptions persist. The Middle East conflict, including Iran's strikes on Qatar's LNG facilities, curtailed 17% of Qatar's export capacity and damaged two of its 14 LNG trains, according to Saad al-Kaabi, Qatar's energy minister and CEO of QatarEnergy.
This disruption, alongside regional gas storage at 28.7% or 327.5 TWh, makes coal cheaper than gas to run, prompting utilities to prepare for higher summer coal burn. Europe's thermal coal imports fell to 37.4 million metric tons in 2025 from 81.7 million mt in 2022, but now face renewed demand.
Platts assessed the CIF ARA 6,000 kcal/kg NAR price at $123.95/mt on March 19, up from $115.45/mt on March 18. Platts German clean spark spreads for the front-quarter 50% efficiency fell to a multiyear low at negative Eur50.51/MWh on March 19, while clean dark spreads rose to Eur11.25/MWh for Q1 and Eur21.80/MWh for Q3.
The Dutch TTF month-ahead was assessed at Eur61.94/MWh on March 19, the highest Platts value since January 2023. Nearest December European carbon allowances eased to Eur63.64/mtCO2e from a January peak of Eur92.09/mtCO2e.
Europe Boosts Coal Imports, Gas Volatility Rises(current)
