Steel Dynamics, IncNasdaq: STLD
Materials · Steel
$249.73
-7.55%
Vol: 2.3M
Research Digest
Thursday, June 18, 2026
Steel Dynamics slipped after issuing Q2 2026 EPS guidance of $3.51-$3.55 on June 17, well below the ~$4.16 consensus, with a $16M write-down weighing on results.
On June 17, 2026, Steel Dynamics guided Q2 2026 EPS to $3.51-$3.55, sharply higher sequentially from $2.78 in Q1 and $2.01 a year ago, but well below the ~$4.16 FactSet consensus, sending shares down about 2.6% after hours. Estimated Q2 earnings were reduced by $16 million from asset write-downs tied to relocating its planned second satellite aluminum recycled slab center from Arizona to Columbus, Mississippi. Management still expects steel operations profitability to rise meaningfully on strong demand and metal margin expansion, as realized selling prices outpaced scrap costs. End-market demand was described as solid across non-residential construction, energy, automotive, and industrial sectors. The risk is that despite improving fundamentals, the guidance missed elevated Street expectations and the aluminum-segment ramp continues to carry execution costs; rival Nucor topped its outlook the same day, sharpening the relative disappointment.
Previous Market Intelligence
13 daysJun 17Steel Dynamics drew growing analyst optimism into its next earnings (June 16 commentary), tempered by ~$7.6M of insider sales and concerns the stock trades above intrinsic-value estimates.Mixed▶
As of June 16, 2026, Steel Dynamics was the subject of renewed analyst optimism ahead of its upcoming earnings release, with forecasts for EPS and revenue to rise significantly year over year. That bullish tone is offset by insider sales totaling roughly $7.6 million and valuation concerns, with the shares having hit a 52-week high of $285.88 on June 12 before closing around $282.76. BofA raised its price target to $285 from $250 (June 12), and the company has been pursuing growth via a non-binding offer for BlueScope Steel and a 6% dividend hike to $0.53/share. The bear case is that the stock now trades near or above some intrinsic-value estimates, leaving limited margin of safety, while insider selling signals caution. Steel pricing cyclicality and tariff/policy dependence remain the structural risks.
Jun 16No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours. Steel Dynamics traded near a 52-week high (~$282) on June 15, but the latest catalysts (Q1 2026 results, dividend increase, and JPMorgan/Wells Fargo price-target raises) all predate the 48-hour window.
Jun 15No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
Jun 14No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
May 21Steel Dynamics Q1 strong on record shipments; dividend, Cramer praisePositive▶
Q1 2026 net income $403M, revenue $5.2B with record shipments and high mill utilization (EPS slightly missed). Board declared Q2 dividend $0.53/share payable July 10. Jim Cramer praised stock on national TV; State Street disclosed multi-million-share stake. Stock at $228.29 on May 20, near 52-week high of $243.73. Morgan reaffirmed Hold May 15. Consensus Buy, avg PT $214.30.
May 20Steel Dynamics trades around $223-$228 on May 18-20 with mixed analyst signals as Morgan reaffirmed a Hold on May 15, while Cramer praise and a State Street ownership disclosure provide near-term support.Mixed▶
Steel Dynamics (STLD) shares traded in a $219-$229 range during May 18-20, 2026, consolidating after the Q1 print. On May 15, Morgan reaffirmed its Hold rating on STLD, joining Bank of America's earlier downgrade to Neutral from Buy. Offsetting bearish analyst tone, Jim Cramer publicly praised the stock and State Street disclosed a multi-million-share ownership stake, drawing fresh retail and institutional attention. The board recently approved a Q2 cash dividend of $0.53 per share payable July 10. Risk centers on whether the analyst caution on steel pricing weighs more than the constructive ownership and sentiment signals as the company seeks to defend its $228 range.
May 19Steel Dynamics stock traded in $225.91–$230.09 range on May 19 with no fresh corporate catalysts.Neutral▶
On May 19, 2026, Steel Dynamics (STLD) traded between $225.91 and $230.09, closing around $228.58, absent fresh catalysts. Recent flow includes a SVP open-market sale of 2,300 shares at $234.11 on May 12 and a $0.53 Q2 dividend declared May 7. This matters because shares remain near the upper end of their 52-week range ($119.89–$243.73) on Cramer-fueled retail enthusiasm and State Street's disclosed multi-million-share stake. Bear case: insider selling at highs and a Hold reiteration from Morgan on May 15 suggest limited near-term upside.
May 18Steel Dynamics shares slide as insider selling and weak price action follow Q1 results and Q2 dividend declaration.Mixed▶
Steel Dynamics stock fell to a range of $226.75-$232.01 on May 17, 2026, closing around $229.39 after declining from $237 levels earlier in the month. Senior Vice President Richard A. Poinsatte executed an open-market sale of 2,300 shares at $234.11 per share on May 12, 2026. The company previously announced a Q2 cash dividend of $0.53 per common share, payable July 10, 2026. Q1 2026 results showed net income of $403 million and revenue of $5.2 billion with record steel shipments, though EPS slightly missed expectations. Analyst consensus remains Buy with shares trading well below estimated future cash flow value of $371.19, and earnings forecast to grow at 20.7% per year.
May 15Steel Dynamics navigates mixed analyst sentiment with BofA downgrade to Neutral ($250 PT) offsetting Wells Fargo target raise to $207, as Q1 2026 record steel shipments collide with aluminum startup challenges.Mixed▶
Steel Dynamics reported Q1 2026 revenue of $5.2B (up 19.1% YoY) and net income of $403M with EPS of $2.78, meeting consensus while beating revenue by 2.36%. Q2 2026 guidance projects EPS of $3.86 and revenue of $5.49B. CEO Millett highlighted record steel shipments and progress on aluminum operations targeting full capacity by end-2026 despite early startup challenges. Analyst sentiment turned mixed: BofA's Lawson Winder downgraded to Neutral from Buy with a $250 PT, while Wells Fargo raised PT to $207 from $196 (Overweight). Stock traded between $232-$239 on May 14. Risk: aluminum startup execution remains the key swing factor and macro steel demand visibility is softening into 2H26.
May 14Steel Dynamics declares $0.53/share Q2 dividend and sees BMO lift target to $240 as Q1 EPS narrowly misses on $5.2B revenue.Mixed▶
Steel Dynamics' board declared a $0.53 per share Q2 2026 cash dividend on May 7, payable July 10 to holders of record June 30. Q1 2026 net income was $403M on $5.20B revenue, with EPS of $2.78 just missing the $2.79 consensus, though revenue fell short of the $5.39B estimate. Q2 2026 guidance projects EPS of $3.86 and revenue of $5.49B, with lagging price contracts expected to lift results. BMO Capital Markets boosted its price target from $195 to $240 with an Outperform rating; BofA had previously downgraded to Neutral on April 30. Co-founders Richard Teets Jr. and Gabriel Shaheen retired from the board on May 6. Shares closed at $235.97, up 0.37%.
May 13Steel Dynamics declared a $0.53/share Q2 dividend on May 7 and trades near $232 as analysts raise price targets following record Q1 shipments.Positive▶
On May 7, 2026, Steel Dynamics' board declared a Q2 cash dividend of $0.53 per common share, payable July 10 to shareholders of record on June 30. STLD shares traded between $230.26 and $237.94 on May 12, sitting near the upper end of a 52-week range of $119.89-$243.73. The company is digesting a strong Q1 2026 with $403 million net income and $5.2 billion revenue on record steel shipments, alongside continued ramp of aluminum operations. Q2 guidance projects EPS of $3.86 and revenue of $5.49 billion as lagging price contracts catch up. Analyst sentiment is constructive: BMO Capital lifted its target to $240 (Outperform), and Citigroup raised its target to $255 (Buy). Consensus rating is Buy across 8 analysts.
May 12Steel Dynamics declares Q2 2026 dividend of $0.53/share amid post-earnings analyst price target hikesPositive▶
Steel Dynamics declared a $0.53/share Q2 2026 cash dividend payable July 10. The announcement follows strong Q1 2026 results with $403M net income, $5.2B revenue, and a 17% surge after release, prompting analysts to raise price targets significantly. BMO Capital boosted target to $240 from $195, and Citigroup raised it to $255 from $180, both with bullish ratings. The company continues expanding its aluminum operations to diversify beyond steel. Trading at $235.97 on May 12 amid healthy buy consensus.
May 11Steel Dynamics declared a $0.53 Q2 dividend after Q1 net income of $403M and record steel shipments, with KeyBanc raising PT to $241.Positive▶
Steel Dynamics reported Q1 2026 net income of $403 million and revenue of $5.2 billion, with record steel shipments though EPS slightly missed expectations. The company is advancing its aluminum production growth strategy. On May 7, 2026, the board declared a Q2 cash dividend of $0.53 per share, payable July 10 to shareholders of record June 30. Analyst sentiment is constructive: KeyCorp raised its price target from $190 to $241 with an Overweight rating, and Wall Street Zen upgraded STLD from Hold to Buy. According to 8 analysts, STLD has a Buy consensus rating as of May 6 with an average price target near $215.62. Shares opened at $235.10 Friday after gaining 3.32% on May 5 from $229.82 to $237.46.
Sector Peers
| Company | Price | Day | 1M | Fwd P/E | Beta | Mkt Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NUENUCOR | $243.81 | -3.48% | +8.1% | 14.7x | 1.91 | $55.5B |
| STLDSTEEL | $249.73 | -7.55% | +9.5% | 13.9x | 1.52 | $36.0B |
| LINLINDE | $512.15 | -0.72% | +1.1% | 26.0x | 0.73 | $236.8B |
| NEMNEWMONT | $104.04 | -1.54% | -3.4% | 9.1x | 0.46 | $110.8B |
| FCXFREEPORT | $68.84 | -0.32% | +12.8% | 17.6x | 1.36 | $98.7B |
| SHWSHERWIN | $321.36 | +2.41% | +4.3% | 24.2x | 1.13 | $79.1B |
Key Fundamentals
RSI (14-Day)
52-Week Range
Moving Averages
Price above both MAs — bullish structure.