LyondellBasell Industries NVNYSE: LYB
Materials · Specialty Chemicals
$74.91
+0.42%
Vol: 7.2M
Research Digest
Friday, May 1, 2026
LyondellBasell beats Q1 estimates with $0.49 EPS; stock up 22.69% over past month on strategic improvements
LyondellBasell reported Q1 2026 EPS of $0.49, significantly beating estimates of $0.21, driven by improved polyethylene pricing and low inventory levels. Company has rebounded 22.69% over the past month following strategic capacity cuts and expanding circular/advanced recycling capacity (MoReTec programs). CEO projects modest Q1 improvements with $1.2 billion planned capex for 2026 focusing on sustainable plastics. Stock trades at $73.48 with market cap of $23.6B. Analyst consensus shows "Hold" rating with 12-month target of $69.35.
Previous Market Intelligence
13 daysApr 30Lyondellbasell will report Q1 2026 earnings May 1 with consensus EPS of $0.31 reflecting a 6.1% YoY decline, though Morgan Stanley and RBC raised price targets to $77 and $91 respectively on lithium rebound optimism.Mixed▶
Lyondellbasell is set to report Q1 earnings on May 1 with analysts expecting weaker year-over-year results despite recent analyst optimism. The chemical maker halved its quarterly dividend to preserve cash as earnings face pressure from weak demand and supply issues. However, Morgan Stanley (April 21) and RBC Capital (April 10) both raised price targets citing stronger lithium pricing and capacity expansion benefits. The company saw 22.69% share price increase over the past month driven by better results and strategic capacity cuts.
Apr 29LyondellBasell shares rise 22.69% in past month as Q4 results beat and CEO projects modest Q1 improvementsPositive▶
LyondellBasell reported Q4 2025 EPS loss of $0.26 but with revenue at $7.09 billion exceeding expectations. The company navigated one of the longest chemical industry downturns on record but stock has rallied on strategic capacity cuts and recycling investments. CEO projects modest improvements in Q1 2026 from polyethylene price increases and low inventory levels. Company plans $1.2B capex for 2026.
Apr 16LyondellBasell implosion of 350-foot Houston refinery coker units represents capacity restructuring post-refining exit in early 2025.Neutral▶
LyondellBasell conducted a controlled implosion of two inactive 350-foot coker units at its Houston Refinery in early April 2026, part of the company's transition following its refining exit in early 2025. The company released its 2025 Sustainability Report on April 14, highlighting strong operational performance and industry-leading safety results while advancing circular and low-carbon solutions. LyB stock surged 71.5% year-to-date, driven by geopolitical tensions, though shares fell 1% to 12% following US-Iran ceasefire announcements that reopened the Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic. Analyst consensus rates LYB as Hold with a 12-month price target of $68.88, a -7.11% decrease from current levels.
Apr 15LyondellBasell releases 2025 sustainability report showing record safety performance and 29% scope 3 emissions reduction.Mixed▶
LyondellBasell published 2025 Sustainability Report achieving lowest-ever total recordable incident rate of 0.120 and 29% scope 3 emissions reduction. Produced ~206,000 metric tons of recycled/renewable polymers. Stock surged 40%+ YTD on US-Iran ceasefire optimism but pulled back in April. Q1 2026 earnings set for May 1.
Apr 14LyondellBasell pulls back 7.9% in April after 40% March surge; Iran ceasefire reduces geopolitical premium on chemical stocks.Mixed▶
LyondellBasell surged 40.1% in March on geopolitical-driven tight chemical markets but retreated 7.9% in April as U.S.-Iran ceasefire eases tensions. Announced 50% dividend reduction from $1.25 to $0.69 to preserve capital. Q1 2026 earnings May 1. Bank of America downgraded to Underperform at $68; Alembic Global upgraded to Overweight at $100.
Apr 13Stock down 10.47% following US-Iran ceasefire; Q1 earnings May 1; Alembic upgraded to Overweight.Negative▶
LyondellBasell stock fell sharply after US-Iran ceasefire agreement reduced geopolitical risk premium. Q1 2026 earnings on May 1 before market open. Alembic Global upgraded LYB to Overweight with price target $100. Stock previously surged 40% in March on Middle East tensions.
Apr 10LyondellBasell Drops 6.74% as Iran Ceasefire Eliminates Geopolitical PremiumNegative▶
Fell 6.74% on US-Iran ceasefire. Had surged 40.1% in March on tensions. BofA downgraded to Underperform with $68 target.
Apr 9LyondellBasell pulls back 7.9% in April after 40% March rally on Iran disruptions.Mixed▶
LyondellBasell surged 40.1% in March on Iran war supply chain disruptions affecting 11-15% of global ethylene/polyethylene. Stock pulled back 7.9% in April after US-Iran ceasefire talks. Bank of America downgraded to Underperform, target $68. KeyBanc upgraded to Overweight, target $73. Citi upgraded to Buy. Mixed sentiment on forward dynamics.
Apr 8Bank of America downgrades LyondellBasell to Underperform but raises target to $68.Negative▶
BofA downgraded LYB to Underperform April 6, citing fading geopolitical premiums. PT raised to $68 from $55. Q1 earnings May 1.
Apr 7Bank of America Downgrades LyondellBasell to Underperform on Unsustainable TailwindsMixed▶
Bank of America cut LyondellBasell to Underperform, lowering price target to $55 from $68, citing unsustainable war-related tailwinds. Company beat cash improvement targets with tighter PE inventories and margin gains. Recalibrated quarterly dividend to $0.69. Q1 earnings May 1, 2026. Stock up 41% month-over-month.
Apr 6LyondellBasell rebounds on tight polyethylene; Q4 net loss $738M but shares surge 22.69% in past month.Mixed▶
LyondellBasell Industries experiencing notable resurgence driven by tight polyethylene supply and favorable feedstock costs. Despite Q4 2025 net loss of $738M amid challenging market conditions, stock surged 22.69% past month (up 41.31% month-over-month, 3.55% week-to-week). Stock at $76.50 with 6.0% dividend yield. Company cut dividend 50% to $0.69/share, breaking 14-year streak, to prioritize capital efficiency and balance sheet. Q1 2026 earnings estimated April 23-24. Hold consensus from 16 analysts, $68.0 target (-11.35% downside).
Apr 3LyondellBasell stock surged 3.77% April 2 on dividend cut (50% reduction), capital shift to recycling tech, and modest Q1 2026 improvement outlook.Mixed▶
LyondellBasell jumped 3.77% on April 2, 2026 despite reporting Q4 2025 loss. Management cut the quarterly dividend from $1.25 to $0.69, freeing $1.8B annually for capex in recycling technology. The company allocated $1.2B 2026 capex focused on MoReTec-1 facility. Management expects modest Q1 2026 improvements.
Apr 2LyondellBasell surges 88.69% YTD amid tight polyethylene markets and analyst upgradesPositive▶
LyondellBasell surged 88.69% over the past 90 days and 15.27% over 7 days as tighter North American polyethylene inventories, moderating natural gas costs, and stronger margins drove outperformance. Wells Fargo raised its price target to $87 from $70 on March 30, and UBS raised to $79 from $73 on March 26. However, 16 analysts maintain a Hold consensus with a $63.06 price target implying 16% downside. Management reduced the quarterly dividend 50% (from $1.25 to $0.69) to free up $1.8 billion annually for recycling technology investment, with the MoReTec-1 plant scheduled for full commissioning later in 2026.
Sector Peers
| Company | Price | Day | 1M | Fwd P/E | Beta | Mkt Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHWSHERWIN | $317.83 | -1.18% | +1.6% | 24.2x | 1.27 | $79.3B |
| ECLECOLAB | $259.78 | -0.31% | -2.4% | 27.2x | 1.02 | $73.6B |
| PPGPPG | $107.42 | -1.00% | +4.5% | 12.4x | 1.16 | $24.3B |
| LYBLYONDELLBASELL | $74.91 | +0.42% | -5.1% | 13.1x | 0.44 | $24.1B |
| ALBALBEMARLE | $193.55 | -1.60% | +13.7% | 21.8x | 1.43 | $23.2B |
| DDDUPONT | $46.29 | +1.38% | +0.2% | 17.9x | 1.12 | $18.7B |
Key Fundamentals
RSI (14-Day)
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Price above both MAs — bullish structure.