Dollar Tree, IncNasdaq: DLTR
Consumer Staples · Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
$94.85
-2.33%
Vol: 2.3M
Research Digest
Friday, May 1, 2026
Dollar Tree stock hits 5-month low amid BMO downgrade and pricing headwinds
Dollar Tree reported Q4 2025 results with net sales up 9.0% to $5.45B, same-store sales up 5.0%, and gross profit margin up 150 bps to 39.1%. CEO Mike Creedon noted 20th consecutive year of positive same-store sales. Company converted 2,400 stores to Dollar Tree 3.0 multi-price format, ending year with 5,300 multi-price stores. However, stock fell 5.5% to $98 and hit 5-month low on April 27. BMO Capital downgraded shares due to concerns about shift to higher-priced items. Evercore ISI lowered target to $150 from $155.
Previous Market Intelligence
13 daysApr 30Dollar Tree stock down 5.5% on April 27 to $98 hitting 5-month low despite 27% upside projection, as analysts lower price targets citing strategic challenges.Negative▶
Dollar Tree stock dropped 5.5% to $98 on April 27, 2026, hitting a 5-month low despite analyst projections of 27% upside potential. The company reported Q4 2025 with net sales up 9% to $5.45 billion and same-store sales up 5%, with gross margin expanding 150 basis points to 39.1%. The company achieved its 20th consecutive year of positive same-store sales. However, Evercore ISI lowered price target to $150 from $155 on April 21. BMO Capital downgraded the stock citing concerns about shift to higher-priced items. The company faces near-term headwinds from price increases and store closures.
Apr 29Dollar Tree forecasts FY2026 sales below expectations as budget-conscious consumers tighten spending; BMO downgrades; price target cut to $150Negative▶
Dollar Tree reported Q4 FY2025 strong results with 20 consecutive years of positive same-store sales and net sales up 9% to $5.45B with 5% same-store sales growth. However, company forecasts FY2026 sales largely below expectations citing budget-conscious consumers tightening spending. Converted/added ~2,400 stores to multi-price format, ending year with ~5,300 multi-price stores. BMO Capital downgrade and analyst price target cuts (Evercore ISI cut to $150 from $155) reflect concerns over shift to higher-priced items. Vanguard reduced stake by 1.5%.
Apr 16Dollar Tree delivered 9% sales growth and 5% same-store sales growth with 16.5% forecasted EPS growth for 2026.Positive▶
Dollar Tree reported strong Q4 results with 9% sales growth, 5% same-store sales increase, and 16.5% EPS growth forecast for 2026. CEO reaffirmed that 85% of stores remain at $2 or less price point despite criticism over price increases. The company has closed 670 of its planned 1,000 underperforming Family Dollar locations, with 158 converted to Dollar Tree format. J.P. Morgan maintains Buy rating. Stock trades at $100.78 with 52-week range of $100.48 to $102.92. As of April 14, 2026, analyst average rating is Hold with 12-month price target of $123.94 representing 17% upside. Daniel Delrosario appointed Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer.
Apr 15No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
Apr 14Wall Street Zen upgrades Dollar Tree to Buy; Q1 2026 guidance misses consensus estimates.Mixed▶
Wall Street Zen upgraded from Hold to Buy on April 13. Company updated Q1 2026 guidance to $1.45-$1.60 EPS (below consensus $1.57). Stock recently jumped 7.3% after Q4 results beat with $2.56 EPS and strong 5% same-store sales growth. Consensus Hold rating with $123.94 target.
Apr 13Dollar Tree updated Q1 2026 earnings guidance to $1.45-$1.60 EPS, well below consensus of $1.98, triggering 2.9% stock decline.Negative▶
Dollar Tree issued Q1 2026 EPS guidance of $1.45-$1.60 vs consensus of $1.98, and FY 2026 guidance of $6.50-$6.90 vs consensus $6.90. Stock declined 2.9% to $102.60. FY 2026 revenue guided to $11.4B-$11.5B. Despite challenges including tariff pressures, analysts maintain Hold consensus with PT $123.94 (17% upside).
Apr 10Dollar Tree Q4 FY2025 with 5% comparable store sales growthNeutral▶
Net sales $5.45B (+9%), EPS $2.56, 5% comparable sales growth. 2,400 stores converted to 3.0 format. FY2026 guidance: 3-4% comp growth.
Apr 9Dollar Tree reports strong Q4 2025 with multi-price expansion and 2026 guidancePositive▶
Dollar Tree reported Q4 fiscal 2025 net sales of $5.45B (+9.0%) and full-year sales of $19.4B (+10.4%) with diluted EPS of $5.94. Company achieved 20th consecutive year of positive same-store sales with 2,400+ conversions to multi-price format. FY 2026 guidance includes net sales $20.5-20.7B with 3-4% comparable sales growth and adjusted EPS $6.50-6.90. Company plans ~400 new store openings and closure of ~75 stores. Recent distribution center purchase in Arizona expected to open spring 2026.
Apr 8Dollar Tree drops on analyst downgrades and concerns over strategic shift to multi-price model.Negative▶
DLTR fell 12.1% over 8-day losing streak, erasing ~$3.2B market cap. BMO downgraded citing higher-priced strategy shift. Q4 EPS $2.56 beat. Plans 400+ new stores.
Apr 7Dollar Tree faces mixed sentiment on multi-price strategy; Q4 FY2025 sales +9.0%, guidance FY2026 comp +3-4%Mixed▶
Dollar Tree Q4 FY2025: net sales $5.45B (+9.0%), diluted EPS $2.56. FY2025: net sales $19.4B (+10.4%), EPS $5.94. FY2026 guidance: comp sales +3-4%, adjusted EPS $6.50-6.90. Secured $500M term loan, expanding distribution infrastructure (new Arizona facility Spring 2026). Mixed analyst views: BMO downgraded, Citi downgraded to Neutral. Stock trading $108.44 vs fair value $125.26.
Apr 6Dollar Tree achieves 20th consecutive year of positive same-store sales with 5.0% Q4 growth and strong guidance.Positive▶
Dollar Tree reported fourth quarter results for period ended January 31, 2026, achieving its 20th consecutive year of positive same-store sales with 5.0% growth. Average ticket increased 6.3%, partially offset by 1.2% traffic decline. The company converted or added 2,400 stores to Dollar Tree 3.0 multi-price format and secured a $500 million term loan facility. For fiscal 2026, the company expects net sales of $20.5–$20.7 billion with 3–4% comp growth and diluted EPS of $6.50–$6.90. Market challenges persist including a BMO Capital downgrade.
Apr 3Dollar Tree secures $500M term loan; plans 400 new stores and 75 closures in fiscal 2026.Neutral▶
Dollar Tree secured a $500 million term loan credit facility to fund supply chain investments and store expansion. Plans to open approximately 400 new stores and close 75 in fiscal 2026. Q4 2025 adjusted profit of $2.56 per share beat estimates with 5% same-store sales growth. Average target $123.94.
Apr 2Dollar Tree reports Q4 2025 with 9% sales growth, 5% same-store sales increase, and guides 16.5% EPS growth for FY 2026 with 400 new store plans.Positive▶
Dollar Tree reported fourth quarter and full year 2025 results with net sales increasing 9.0% to $5.45 billion and same-store net sales up 5.0%, driven by a 6.3% increase in average ticket partially offset by a 1.2% traffic decline. The company achieved 20 consecutive years of positive same-store sales growth. Gross profit margin increased 150 basis points to 39.1% with diluted EPS at $2.56 from continuing operations. Dollar Tree converted or added approximately 2,400 stores to the Dollar Tree 3.0 multi-price format with roughly 5,300 multi-price stores at year-end. The company plans approximately 400 new stores in fiscal 2026. Despite positive results, BMO Capital downgraded the stock citing concerns about shifting to higher price points. The stock trades at $109.41 with 18 analysts rating it "Hold" and a $123.94 target (+16.99% upside).
Sector Peers
| Company | Price | Day | 1M | Fwd P/E | Beta | Mkt Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMTWALMART | $131.84 | -0.07% | +4.0% | 40.2x | 0.66 | $1.05T |
| COSTCOSTCO | $1,012.70 | -0.18% | -0.4% | 45.1x | 0.98 | $450.1B |
| TGTTARGET | $129.14 | -0.47% | +6.2% | 15.3x | 1.03 | $58.9B |
| DGDOLLAR | $114.31 | -1.35% | -7.3% | 14.5x | 0.34 | $25.5B |
| DLTRDOLLAR | $94.85 | -2.33% | -12.6% | 13.1x | 0.74 | $19.2B |
| PGPROCTER | $147.58 | +0.33% | +3.0% | 20.7x | 0.40 | $342.5B |
Key Fundamentals
RSI (14-Day)
52-Week Range
Moving Averages
Price below 200d MA — bearish structure.