News
CPI · Federal Reserve · Inflation · Treasury Yields
U.S. Treasury yields declined following a cooler-than-expected January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, with the two-year UST yielding 3.409% and the 10-year at 4.055%, both down by 5 basis points.
While the tamer inflation data typically signals potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, analysts note that robust job numbers from earlier in the week are tempering expectations for immediate easing. Experts like John Kerschner of Janus Henderson Investors suggest the economy might be entering a "gold medal" phase with strong GDP and a stabilizing job market, leading the bond market to price in only about two rate cuts by year-end.
Lindsay Rosner of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and Seema Shah of Principal Asset Management confirm the CPI clarifies the path to normalized rates but emphasize the Fed's continued caution due to labor market strength. The article also details the performance of municipal bonds, which saw gains of 1.53% for investment-grade and 1.76% for high-yield, and remain relatively rich compared to Treasuries, with strong demand and fund inflows despite a holiday-shortened week.
Various municipal bond issues totaling an estimated $6.91 billion are highlighted for the upcoming calendar.
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