Milder Weather Drags US Natural Gas Futures Lower

This downturn was primarily driven by forecasts for milder weather conditions across the U.S. and an anticipated reduction in demand. Experts like Gary Cunningham of Tradition Energy noted that the late-season heat, which had been boosting power sector demand in the central U.S., is expected to soften and shift to a more bearish pattern as it moves north.

Meteorologists predict warmer-than-normal temperatures will persist through October 28. Financial firm LSEG projects a drop in average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, from 100.7 bcfd last week to 99.5 bcfd this week.

Concurrently, average gas output in the Lower 48 states has also seen a decline, standing at 106.5 bcfd in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record 108.3 bcfd in August. Analysts from Ritterbusch and Associates emphasized that weather will continue to be the dominant factor influencing gas pricing, overshadowing daily shifts in fundamentals like production and exports, especially as the shoulder period approaches, potentially narrowing price ranges.