US LNG Exports Drive Down European Gas Prices

This significant drop, representing a 45% year-to-date decline and over 90% from 2022 crisis peaks, occurs despite an early cold winter and European gas storage levels remaining below the five-year average (75% EU, 67% Germany). The primary catalyst is the substantial increase in U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Europe, which now account for approximately 56% of the continent's LNG imports.

This consistent supply, bolstered by strong U.S. export capacity and relatively weak Asian demand, has dramatically narrowed the transatlantic price differential between Europe's TTF and the U.S. Henry Hub, from $12 per MMBtu to just $4.8. Goldman Sachs analysts project this rebalancing trend to continue, forecasting TTF prices to decline further to €29/MWh in 2026 and €20/MWh in 2027, potentially reaching €12/MWh by 2028-2029 due to storage congestion, which could depress Henry Hub to $2.70/MMBtu.

However, post-2030, renewed LNG tightness from China's decarbonization and Asian infrastructure investment could see prices rebound.