
Europe Defense · Geopolitics · Germany · NATO
Europe is accelerating a "European NATO" fallback plan to ensure its defense using existing military structures if the U.S. withdraws, gaining crucial buy-in from Germany, which historically opposed a go-it-alone approach, amid escalating concerns over U.S. reliability under President Trump.
The plans, conceived last year, accelerated after Trump threatened to seize Greenland and gained fresh urgency from Europe’s refusal to back America’s war in Iran. Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz reversed decades of policy due to concerns about the U.S.’s dependability as an ally during the Trump presidency and beyond, according to people familiar with his thinking.
Europeans are now taking initiative to shoulder more responsibilities, a shift long demanded by Trump but now driven by his growing hostility. Finland's President Alexander Stubb confirms a "burden shifting" from the U.S. toward Europe is ongoing.
Germany's shift unlocked broader agreement from the U.K., France, Poland, the Nordic countries, and Canada, according to officials involved. Practical military questions are now being tackled, including air-and-missile defenses, logistics, and major regional exercises.
Reintroducing the military draft and accelerating European production of vital equipment in areas like anti-submarine warfare, space, and reconnaissance are critical. The Supreme Allied Commander for Europe remains American, and no European member has sufficient stature to replace the U.S. as military leader, particularly regarding the continent-wide nuclear umbrella.
France and Britain are under pressure to expand both their nuclear and strategic intelligence roles. Retired U.S. Adm.
James Foggo states Europeans have the capability but need to invest and develop capabilities faster. The transition is already underway, with a growing number of key NATO command posts held by Europeans.
Europe Bolsters NATO Defense as Germany Shifts Stance(current)