China Reserves Airspace 40 Days, Heightens Geopolitical Risk

The "Notice to Air Missions" (Notams) cover an area larger than Taiwan, extending from the Yellow Sea to the East China Sea, with no vertical ceiling ("SFC-UNL"). Ray Powell, director of the SeaLight project at Stanford University, states the 40-day duration and "SFC-UNL" designation, without an announced exercise, suggest a sustained operational readiness posture.

Christopher Sharman, director of the U.S. Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute, indicates the reserved airspace offers an opportunity to practice air combat maneuvers for a potential Taiwan conflict. Taiwanese officials believe China exploits U.S. distraction by the Middle East conflict, aiming to deter U.S. allies and erode American influence in the Indo-Pacific, specifically targeting Japan.

This action follows a pause in Chinese military flights near Taiwan and coincides with a U.S. congressional delegation visit to Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, and Japan's deployment of long-range missiles. Ben Lewis of PLATracker notes past similar Notams were shorter 3-day blocks, suggesting the longer window provides scheduling flexibility for spring training, though he does not anticipate major exercises given upcoming political visits.