Marathon Petroleum CorporationNYSE: MPC
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
$246.97
-0.53%
Vol: 1.3M
Research Digest
Friday, May 1, 2026
Marathon Petroleum declares $1 quarterly dividend; stock surges 40% in three months on refining margin strength.
Marathon Petroleum declared $1.00 per share quarterly dividend with mixed analyst signals. BMO Capital raised PT to $255 from $230, maintaining Outperform. Stock surged 38% in past three months driven by margin expansion and share buybacks rather than revenue growth. Vanguard disclosed 7.52% stake with 22.1M shares. Fair value estimated $247.18 vs latest close $248.29.
Previous Market Intelligence
13 daysApr 30Marathon Petroleum Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $4.07 beats consensus; analyst targets raised to $217-$243.Positive▶
Marathon Petroleum reported Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $4.07, significantly exceeding consensus of $2.72. Net income was $1.5B or $5.12/share vs $371M or $1.15/share YoY. The board declared $1.00 quarterly dividend on April 29. Multiple analyst upgrades: Wells Fargo raised target to $217, BMO Capital to $225, Morgan Stanley to $233, and Citi to $243. Stock at $243.41 with 1.6% dividend yield. Company gained 71.77% over past year, ranking #1 in U.S. energy sector per Just Capital rankings.
Apr 16Marathon Petroleum reports Q4 2025 adjusted EPS $4.07, shareholder meeting April 29Positive▶
Marathon Petroleum announced record 2025 results with Q4 net income $1.5B ($5.12/sh) and FY25 net income $4.0B ($13.22/sh); adjusted EBITDA $11.96B. Stock up 6% on Feb 3 after beating consensus. Q4 adjusted EPS $4.07 beat expectations of $2.73. 2026 outlook: $1.5B standalone capex, $2.7B MPLX capex; reduced refining capex ~20%. Analysts raised targets including Goldman Sachs, Mizuho, UBS. Consensus FY26 EPS $21.49 (+100.8% from $10.70 FY25). Shareholder meeting April 29 includes proposed Certificate amendment. Labor negotiations ongoing.
Apr 15Marathon Petroleum upgraded to Strong-Buy by Zacks on improved refining margins; secured $5 billion credit facility.Positive▶
Zacks Research upgraded Marathon Petroleum to Strong-Buy on April 9 citing improved refining margins. MPC secured a $5 billion five-year revolving credit facility on April 7. Annual shareholder meeting scheduled for April 29. Analysts lifted consensus earnings estimates by 16.3%. Two-week US-Iran ceasefire expected to ease oil supply pressures. Stock trading around $223.28.
Apr 14Marathon Petroleum upgraded to strong-buy by Zacks; downgraded to buy by Wall Street Zen on April 13 amid refinery headwinds.Mixed▶
Marathon Petroleum received strong-buy upgrade from Zacks on April 9, then downgraded to buy by Wall Street Zen on April 13. Stock declined 1.8% over 30 days despite 34.8% YTD gain. Preparing for major turnaround at Robinson, Illinois refinery. Annual shareholder meeting April 29. Analyst consensus Buy with $225.21 target.
Apr 13Marathon Petroleum upgraded to Strong-Buy by Zacks; Q1 earnings May 5 amid refinery turnarounds and commodity volatility.Mixed▶
Zacks upgraded Marathon Petroleum from Hold to Strong-Buy, citing expected refining margin expansion and cost optimization. Stock moved 3.1% driven by geopolitical tension. Company faces major planned turnarounds at Robinson and Catlettsburg refineries. Fair value estimates suggest ~$405 vs. $223 close. Q1 earnings webcast May 5.
Apr 10Marathon Petroleum slides 5.67% as oil prices tumble on Iran ceasefire despite Zacks Strong-Buy upgrade.Mixed▶
Marathon Petroleum fell 5.67% as crude prices plummeted following a US-Iran ceasefire deal, though Zacks Research upgraded MPC from Hold to Strong-Buy on April 9. JPMorgan raised price target to $235 from $184 and Piper Sandler raised to $228 from $197. The company is hosting annual shareholder meeting April 29. Q4 2025 EPS of $4.07 significantly beat consensus of $3.01.
Apr 9Marathon Petroleum falls 5.67% as crude prices plummet on US-Iran ceasefire deal; UBS raises PT to $280.Negative▶
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) fell 5.67% as crude prices collapsed following US-Iran two-week ceasefire announcement on April 9, underperforming S&P 500's 2.46% gain. UBS raised PT from $221 to $280 on April 2. Analysts lifted consensus annual earnings estimates 16.3%; Zacks ranks MPC #2 Buy. Stock gained 46.4% YTD and 92% over past year, up 14% over last 30 days. Company operates Refining & Marketing, Midstream, and Renewable Diesel segments with diverse U.S. refining footprint.
Apr 8Marathon Petroleum Falls on Oil Price Retreat and Refinery DowntimeNeutral▶
MPC shares declined 4.3% amid oil price cooling following Iran ceasefire expectations. Operational disruption at Catlettsburg refinery remains offline; Robinson refinery undergoing extended maintenance. Despite headwinds, analysts forecast 870.83% EPS growth for upcoming May 5 earnings.
Apr 7Marathon Petroleum upgraded to strong-buy following Q1 beat with 870% EPS growth forecast and UBS $280 price target raisePositive▶
Marathon Petroleum reported Q1 EPS of $4.07 versus $3.73 estimate, beating consensus. Scotiabank upgraded stock to strong-buy rating and UBS raised price target to $280 from $221. Analysts forecast significant 870.83% YoY EPS growth for upcoming earnings on May 5. Stock outpaced S&P 500 in recent trading. Operational challenges included Catlettsburg refinery shutdown following power disruption. Company maintains strong execution with 13.9% ROE and 2.99% net margin. Analyst consensus is Buy with average target reflecting near-term upside.
Apr 6Marathon Petroleum shares surge on elevated refining margins and strong capital returnsPositive▶
Marathon Petroleum continues outperformance with 15.2% gains over past month and 28.68% 30-day return. Raymond James raised price target to $270 from $210, citing elevated refining margins from Middle East supply disruptions and MPLX distributions exceeding $2.8B annually in 2026. MPC reduced refining capex by 20% in 2026 focusing on high-return projects. The company returned $4.5B to shareholders in 2025 and has $4.4B remaining in buyback authorization. Q1 2026 earnings expected May 5 with EPS forecast of $1.85, up 870% YoY. Mixed analyst sentiment on 2026 assumptions with some cutting targets.
Apr 3Marathon Petroleum reports Q4 2025 net income of $1.5B, strong refining margins; UBS raises PT to $280 and Wells Fargo to $331.Positive▶
Marathon Petroleum delivered strong Q4 2025 results with net income of $1.5 billion ($5.12 per share) and adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion, significantly outperforming Q4 2024. Rising crude oil prices and geopolitical factors driving positive momentum, with MPC stock up 15.2% over the past month. UBS raised PT from $221 to $280, Wells Fargo raised to $331.
Apr 2Marathon Petroleum surges 3.1% on April 2 driven by crude oil price gains; UBS raises PT to $280 with record 2025 EBITDA of $12B.Positive▶
Marathon Petroleum Corporation experienced strong upward movement on April 2, 2026, driven by significant macroeconomic and geopolitical factors impacting the energy sector, particularly sharp increases in crude oil prices. UBS raised the price target on MPC to $280 from $221 and maintains a Buy rating. The company delivered record operational and financial results in 2025 with $12B adjusted EBITDA and $8.3B cash from operations. However, an operational disruption at the Catlettsburg, Kentucky refinery due to a power interruption remained offline as of April 1, 2026, posing a near-term threat to refining throughput. An upcoming major planned turnaround maintenance at the Robinson, Illinois refinery is expected to reduce output.
Apr 1Marathon Petroleum stock surges on strong Q4 execution; 2026 shareholder meeting scheduled for April 29.Positive▶
Marathon Petroleum has delivered strong performance with stock gains of 24% in the past month and 50% over three months. Q1 results are expected to show 870.83% YoY EPS growth. Analysts maintain a Buy rating with average PT of $212.79.
Sector Peers
| Company | Price | Day | 1M | Fwd P/E | Beta | Mkt Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLOVALERO | $247.40 | -2.05% | +2.9% | 13.7x | 0.61 | $75.5B |
| MPCMARATHON | $246.97 | -0.53% | +2.9% | 12.1x | 0.58 | $73.1B |
| PSXPHILLIPS | $176.72 | -1.36% | +1.0% | 11.4x | — | $71.8B |
| XOMEXXON | $153.41 | -0.60% | -5.5% | 15.2x | 0.29 | $641.5B |
| CVXCHEVRON | $190.83 | -1.28% | -2.8% | 16.5x | 0.59 | $385.1B |
| COPCONOCOPHILLIPS | $123.50 | -1.81% | -4.5% | 14.8x | 0.19 | $153.3B |
Key Fundamentals
RSI (14-Day)
52-Week Range
Moving Averages
Price above both MAs — bullish structure.