ConocoPhillipsNYSE: COP
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
$107.75
-3.11%
Vol: 9.4M
Research Digest
Friday, June 19, 2026
ConocoPhillips shares fell as a U.S.-Iran framework deal pressured crude prices, even as the company advanced new Syrian gas projects.
On June 18, 2026, ConocoPhillips shares declined (around 3.4%) after news of a U.S.-Iran agreement that would lift sanctions, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and allow higher Iranian oil exports, weighing on global crude benchmarks and energy stocks; U.S. crude fell sharply to its lowest level since early March. As of June 18 the arrangement was characterized as a framework for negotiations rather than a final deal, leaving Hormuz logistics uncertain. The development matters because lower oil prices directly compress upstream cash flow for a pure-play E&P like ConocoPhillips, and traders were buying COP put options. Offsetting the macro pressure, ConocoPhillips is positioned to become the first U.S. major to sign a post-war Syria gas exploration deal alongside TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy. The bear case is that an Iranian supply return structurally caps oil prices and could pressure margins and buyback capacity. Analyst consensus remains Buy with an average target near $143.
Previous Market Intelligence
13 daysJun 18ConocoPhillips shares fell 4% on June 15 as OPEC+ supply increases and Middle East ceasefire talks pressured oil prices.Negative▶
ConocoPhillips (COP) shares fell 4.0% to $112.26 on June 15, 2026, as geopolitical developments weighed on crude oil prices. A ceasefire extension between Israel and Lebanon and Iranian peace talks reduced supply disruption fears, while OPEC+ announced an additional 188,000 barrels per day of supply starting in June. As of June 17, the stock traded at approximately $110.82. Separately, ConocoPhillips is nearing a contract with Syria's new government to revive gas production, building on a November 2025 memorandum of understanding. The company also joined TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy in signing a technical review deal for Syria's offshore Block 3 near Latakia in May. The company's $2 billion buyback program and $0.84 quarterly dividend (paid June 1) provide ongoing capital return support.
Jun 17ConocoPhillips fell about 3.4% as a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz sent crude plunging below $80, pressuring oil producers.Negative▶
Following the June 14 US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the maritime blockade, Brent crude fell below $80 per barrel for the first time in more than four months, and ConocoPhillips shares dropped about 3.4% to roughly $112.98 on June 16, 2026. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley cut their Q4 2026 Brent forecasts to around $80 (down about $10), removing the war-risk premium that had supported energy names. As a pure-play exploration and production company, ConocoPhillips is highly leveraged to crude prices, so the de-escalation is a direct earnings headwind. The bear case: momentum and technical indicators have turned bearish, with the stock testing support near $109-110, and further Iranian export volumes could keep prices capped. On the positive side, ConocoPhillips recently signed a 30-year deal to supply North Slope gas to Glenfarne's Alaska LNG project, and the analyst consensus remains Buy with an average price target near $143, implying meaningful upside if oil stabilizes.
Jun 16ConocoPhillips fell about 4% as crude oil dropped over 5% following a reported US-Iran peace deal, pressuring oil producers broadly.Negative▶
On June 16, 2026, ConocoPhillips shares fell roughly 4%, trading between $110.73 and $114.93 (around $112.50), as crude oil prices plunged more than 5% on a reported US-Iran peace deal that eased Middle East supply-risk premiums. The drop tracked a commodity-driven, sector-wide move in oil producers rather than company-specific news, even as the broader market gained. Fundamentals remain solid: COP reported Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.89, beating the $1.68 estimate by about 12.5%, and recently signed a 30-year deal to supply North Slope gas to Glenfarne's Alaska LNG project. The key risk is continued oil-price weakness if geopolitical de-escalation holds, compressing E&P cash flows. Sentiment is also weighed by recent insider selling (about $81.6M over three months with no buying), though Wall Street maintains 18 buy ratings and zero sells.
Jun 15ConocoPhillips rallied as oil prices spiked on Strait of Hormuz volatility and analysts raised price targets following its new 30-year Alaska LNG supply deal.Positive▶
ConocoPhillips shares rose 3.31% on June 12, 2026, building on a prior gain, driven by a volatile stretch for oil prices tied to export-flow concerns through the Strait of Hormuz. The move came alongside a newly signed 30-year agreement to supply North Slope Alaska natural gas to Glenfarne's Alaska LNG project. Analysts revised fiscal 2026 earnings estimates higher: Mizuho raised its target to $150 from $136 (Outperform) and Barclays' Betty Jiang lifted hers to $155 from $136 (Overweight). The consensus across 27 analysts is Buy with an average target near $143. The risk is that the recent gains hinge on geopolitically driven oil price spikes that could reverse quickly if Hormuz tensions ease. Strong Q1 2026 results ($1.89 adjusted EPS) underpin the bullish analyst stance.
Jun 14No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
May 21ConocoPhillips signed MOU with TotalEnergies, QatarEnergy and Syrian Petroleum Company for Mediterranean offshore exploration, marking return to Syria after 2011 exit.Mixed▶
On May 17, 2026, ConocoPhillips signed a Memorandum of Understanding with TotalEnergies, QatarEnergy, and the Syrian Petroleum Company for offshore exploration in Mediterranean Block 3, Syria, marking a return to the Syrian upstream sector since 2011. Glenfarne Alaska LNG LLC and ConocoPhillips Alaska also signed a 30-year gas sales precedent agreement for the North Slope. COP shares fell 3.7% mid-May after crude oil prices dropped sharply on Trump pausing the Strait of Hormuz military escort and citing progress on a U.S.-Iran peace deal. COP is trading near $121-126 on May 20 with YTD gain of about 35%. Consensus median price target is $141 with 18 Buy, 9 Hold, 0 Sell ratings.
May 20ConocoPhillips signs Syrian offshore exploration MoU and 30-year Alaska LNG gas sales deal as energy prices rise.Positive▶
ConocoPhillips announced two major upstream developments: a 30-year gas sales agreement with Glenfarne for the Alaska LNG project, securing long-term gas offtake for the project, and a Memorandum of Understanding with TotalEnergies, QatarEnergy, and Syrian Petroleum Company for offshore exploration in Syria's Block 3. Q1 2026 EPS of $1.78 ($1.89 adjusted) beat consensus, and shares rose 1.7% recently as oil prices climbed on geopolitical tensions. Stock trades near $125 with a $152 billion market cap, up 26.6% YTD and 39.9% total return over 12 months. Average analyst price target is $141.12 (13.3% upside) with a Buy consensus across 27 analysts. Freedom Broker downgraded to Hold on valuation. Risk: oil price volatility, execution risk on Syrian frontier exploration, and Alaska LNG project completion timeline.
May 19ConocoPhillips signs Syria offshore exploration MOU with TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy on May 17Mixed▶
ConocoPhillips (COP) signed a Memorandum of Understanding on May 17, 2026 with TotalEnergies, QatarEnergy, and the Syrian Petroleum Company for offshore exploration in Mediterranean Block 3, Syria, marking the company's return to Syrian upstream operations after exiting in 2011. At its May 12 annual stockholder meeting, all 13 director nominees were elected and Ernst & Young was ratified as auditor. Glenfarne Alaska LNG LLC and ConocoPhillips Alaska signed a gas sales precedent agreement. Q1 2026 production fell to 2,309 MBOED (down 80 MBOED YoY) with earnings declining due to lower Permian gas prices. Risk: Shares fell 3.7% after crude prices dropped on Trump pausing the Strait of Hormuz military escort and citing U.S.-Iran peace progress. COP is up 35% YTD.
May 18ConocoPhillips shares fell 3.7% as crude oil prices dropped sharply after Trump paused Strait of Hormuz military escort.Negative▶
ConocoPhillips stock fell 3.7% after crude oil prices declined sharply on news that President Trump paused the Strait of Hormuz military escort and cited progress on a U.S.-Iran peace deal. On May 16, 2026, shares traded between $119.62 and $122.48, leaving the stock about 11% below its 52-week high of $133.80 from March 2026. CEO Ryan Lance appeared on CNBC on May 15 to discuss the Willow project in Alaska and the broader push for U.S. oil production. The company is also moving forward with the Greater Ekofisk redevelopment, expected to deliver 90-120 million barrels of oil equivalent, and signed a Syria offshore exploration MoU with TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy. COP remains up 23.1% YTD despite the recent pullback.
May 15ConocoPhillips falls 3.7% as crude drops on US-Iran de-escalation; signs Syria offshore deal with TotalEnergies and gets Freedom Broker downgradeMixed▶
ConocoPhillips shares fell 3.7% after crude prices dropped sharply when President Trump paused the Strait of Hormuz military escort and cited progress on a US-Iran peace deal. On May 12, COP signed a cooperation agreement with TotalEnergies, QatarEnergy and the Syrian Petroleum Company to technically review Block 3 offshore Syria. Q1 2026 earnings fell 21% YoY to $2.2B as production declined 80 MBOED to 2,309 MBOED and realized prices slipped to $50.36/BOE, though adjusted EPS of $1.89 beat estimates (revenue of $16.05B missed by 2.14%). Freedom Broker downgraded to Hold from Buy on May 6; Bernstein raised PT to $121. Stockholders re-elected all 13 directors at the May 12 AGM. Stock trades around $117-119, up 23% YTD. Risk: oil price volatility tied to geopolitical developments.
May 14ConocoPhillips shares fall 3.7% as oil drops on Iran peace progress; Bernstein raises price target to $121 from $98 despite Q1 earnings declining 21% YoY to $2.2B.Mixed▶
ConocoPhillips shares fell 3.7% in early May 2026 after crude oil prices dropped sharply on news that President Trump paused the Strait of Hormuz military escort and cited progress on a US-Iran peace deal. A three-week Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension further reduced supply disruption concerns. On May 12, 2026, Bernstein lifted its price target to $121 from $98 while maintaining Buy following Q1 results showing adjusted EPS of $1.89 beating consensus of $1.72, though net earnings fell 21% YoY to $2.2B. The company excluded Qatar from Q2 guidance due to Middle East conflict uncertainty, projecting Q2 production at 2.19-2.22 mboe/d and full-year at 2.3-2.33 mboe/d. The ConocoPhillips 2026 Annual Meeting was held virtually on May 12. The key risk is that COP trades 6% above its 12-month price target consensus of $118.20, creating valuation risk if crude doesn't sustain above $100/bbl.
May 13ConocoPhillips rose 3.5% to $117.87 on May 12 with Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.89 beating estimates, but $16.05B revenue missed and capex guidance raised to $12-$12.5B.Mixed▶
ConocoPhillips shares rose 3.5% to $117.87 on May 12, 2026, up 35.4% YTD and 46% over one year. Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.89 beat estimates but revenue of $16.054B missed by 2.14% and net income fell 23.13% YoY as realized prices slipped to $50.36/BOE. The company repurchased $1B in stock, declared a $0.84 dividend, and raised capex guidance to $12-$12.5B. According to 21 analysts, COP has a Buy consensus, but the stock trades 6% above the 12-month price target of $118.20. Insiders sold $96M of stock over the past three months with no purchases.
May 12ConocoPhillips reported Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.89 beating $1.73 estimate on May 11, but earnings fell 21% YoY to $2.2B as Permian gas prices and volumes weighed.Mixed▶
ConocoPhillips reported Q1 2026 results on May 11, 2026 with adjusted EPS of $1.89 versus $1.73 consensus, adjusted net income of $2.3B, and net income of $2.2B (down 21% YoY). Production was 2,309 MBOED, 80 MBOED lower than a year ago, with earnings pressured by lower Permian gas prices and lower volumes, partially offset by lower costs. The company maintained its $0.84 per share quarterly dividend. 2026 capital spending guidance was set at $12-$12.5B including incremental Permian activity, with full-year production guided to 2.3-2.33 MMboed. The 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders is being held virtually on May 12, with a shareholder proposal for an independent board chair drawing attention.
Sector Peers
| Company | Price | Day | 1M | Fwd P/E | Beta | Mkt Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COPCONOCOPHILLIPS | $107.75 | -3.11% | -11.9% | 11.7x | 0.11 | $131.3B |
| EOGEOG | $130.14 | -2.33% | -8.2% | 8.8x | 0.26 | $69.2B |
| FANGDIAMONDBACK | $183.05 | -1.31% | -10.2% | 10.4x | 0.39 | $51.6B |
| OXYOCCIDENTAL | $51.64 | -2.64% | -12.0% | 12.8x | 0.12 | $51.5B |
| DVNDEVON | $42.17 | -0.96% | -13.1% | 7.8x | 0.42 | $48.6B |
| EQTEQT | $50.80 | -0.66% | -12.3% | 10.9x | 0.54 | $31.7B |
Key Fundamentals
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52-Week Range
Moving Averages
Price between 50d and 200d. Testing 50d support.