Cummins IncNYSE: CMI
Industrials · Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
$716.50
-0.18%
Vol: 1.2M
Research Digest
Friday, June 19, 2026
Cummins maintains momentum as Citi reiterates Buy with $770 target on data-center natural-gas engine demand
Cummins (CMI) continues to outperform, with shares up about 24.8% over the past three months and trading around $735 on June 18, well ahead of the S&P 500. Citi analyst Kyle Menges maintained a Buy rating with a $770 price target, and the broader consensus is "Buy" with an average target near $740. Recent catalysts include contracts to supply natural-gas generators for large-scale data centers in West Texas and a new 120L natural-gas engine platform targeting pilot production in 2028 and full ramp by 2030, supporting a $9–$12B revenue outlook. The company also raised its 2030 financial targets at a recent analyst meeting and declared a $2.00 quarterly dividend. Key risk is cyclicality in its core Engine and Power Systems segments if industrial and freight demand weakens.
Previous Market Intelligence
13 daysJun 18Cummins shares jumped about 4.4% on June 17 after agreeing to supply natural gas generator sets to Circe Energy for a behind-the-meter prime-power microgrid serving an AI/HPC data center campus in West Texas.Positive▶
On June 17, 2026, Cummins announced an agreement with Circe Energy to supply its HSK78 and QSK60 high-performance natural gas generator sets for a scalable, behind-the-meter prime-power microgrid powering a High-Performance Computing data center campus in West Texas, with deliveries scheduled from 2026 through 2030. The stock rose about 4.42% to roughly $659 on the news, which reinforces the secular growth story for Cummins' Power Systems and Distribution segments tied to surging on-site data center generation demand. The deal validates management's earlier raised 2026 guidance and its $45-$50 billion 2030 revenue target with 20%+ EBITDA margin ambitions. Earlier in June, UBS upgraded Cummins to Buy from Neutral and lifted its price target to $850 from $565, citing double-digit Power business growth and a supportive North American truck cycle, projecting EPS rising from roughly $30 in 2026 to about $41 by 2028. The bear case is that much of the AI/data-center optimism is already priced into the stock after a strong multi-year run, leaving CMI vulnerable to any slowdown in hyperscaler capex or a weaker truck cycle. Execution risk on large capacity expansions and lumpy, project-based power orders also adds volatility to the growth narrative.
Jun 17No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
Jun 16No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
Jun 15No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
Jun 14No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
May 21Cummins raised to $845 PT at Evercore as Q1 power systems strength drives upward guidance revisionPositive▶
Evercore ISI raised its Cummins price target to $845 from $694 with an Outperform rating, while Truist raised its target to $815 from $730 with a Buy rating. The upgrades follow Cummins' Q1 results showing $8.4B revenue (up 3% YoY) and Power Systems revenue surging to $1.96B with EBITDA margin expanding to 29.5% from 23.6%, driven by data center demand. Cummins raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to grow 8%-11% and increased its dividend to $2.00 from $1.82 (16th consecutive annual increase) with an ex-date of May 22. On May 14, VP Donald Jackson sold 730 shares valued at $518,972. At the May 12 annual meeting, shareholders elected eleven directors and supported the executive pay program.
May 20Cummins shareholders backed the board and pay plan at the May 12 annual meeting; the company declared a $2.00 quarterly dividend and a VP insider sale of 730 shares hit May 11.Positive▶
Cummins held its annual meeting May 12 where shareholders re-elected all eleven directors and backed the executive pay program; proposals to split chair/CEO roles and expand charitable giving disclosure were rejected. The board declared a $2.00 quarterly dividend payable June 4 to holders of record May 22. VP Treasury & Tax Donald Jackson sold 730 shares on May 11 for ~$519K. Earlier in May, the company posted strong Q1 results ($8.4B revenue) and raised full-year revenue guidance to up 8-11% (from 3-8%) on record Power Systems performance, with data center backup power demand and North America truck markets improving. Evercore ISI raised its price target to $845 from $694, while JPMorgan, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Citi and Truist also revised. Shares trade around $716.
May 19Evercore ISI raised Cummins' price target to $845 from $694 (Outperform) and Truist lifted theirs to $815 from $730 (Buy) after CMI raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to up 8-11% on record Power Systems demand.Positive▶
Evercore ISI hiked its Cummins price target to $845 from $694 with an Outperform rating, and Truist raised its target to $815 from $730 with a Buy, following Q1 2026 results on May 5 where revenue rose 3% to $8.4B and management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to up 8-11% from prior expectations. Growth was led by record performance in the Power Systems segment, where demand for data-center backup power surged, partially offset by cyclical weakness in North America truck. Cummins' board also declared a $2.00 quarterly dividend payable June 4 to holders of record May 22, and shareholders approved the full board slate and executive pay at the May 12 annual meeting. Why it matters: data-center backup-power demand has become a powerful new earnings driver for Cummins, the dual price-target hikes signal Street conviction in the upgrade cycle and the stock at ~$716 is near its 52-week high of $718. The bear case: Cummins took charges on the wind-down of its low-pressure fuel-cell business, North America truck remains weak, and an aggressive guidance bump leaves limited room for further upside surprise.
May 18Cummins declares $2.00 quarterly dividend (10% hike) on May 13 and VP Bush sells 5,000 shares on May 12 at $694-$699; raised FY2026 revenue outlook continues to drive analyst PT hikes.Mixed▶
Cummins announced a $2.00 quarterly dividend on May 13, 2026 (up from $1.82, marking the 16th consecutive year of increases), payable June 4 to shareholders of record May 22. VP Jennifer Mary Bush sold 5,000 shares on May 12 at $694.13-$699.10 in open-market transactions. Multiple analysts (JPMorgan, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Citi, Truist, Wells Fargo, UBS, BofA, Bernstein, Argus) raised PTs around May 6 following Q1 results: revenue of $8.4B beat estimates and FY2026 revenue guidance was raised to +8%-11% growth, but EPS of $4.71 missed the $5.61 consensus by 16%. Power Systems is benefiting from data center demand while North American truck markets remain weak. A $199M Q1 charge related to divesting the low-pressure fuel cell business signals a strategic pivot. Bear case: heavy truck market weakness persists, EPS missed materially despite revenue beat, and insider selling at near-record share prices may concern some investors.
May 15Cummins shareholders backed leadership at the May 12 annual meeting and the board declared a $2.00 quarterly dividend on May 13.Positive▶
Cummins shareholders elected eleven directors at the May 12, 2026 annual meeting and strongly supported the executive compensation plan, while rejecting proposals to split the Chair/CEO roles and expand charitable giving disclosures. On May 13, the board declared a $2.00 quarterly dividend payable June 4. Recent multi-analyst revisions (JPMorgan, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Citi, Truist on May 6) raised the fair-value estimate to ~$643. Wells Fargo added Cummins to its Q2 Tactical Ideas List. Q1 2026 revenue beat at $8.4B (+3% YoY), driven by Power Systems surge (EBITDA margin 29.5%) from data center demand, though GAAP EPS of $4.71 missed by 15%. FY26 revenue guidance raised to 8-11% growth.
May 14Cummins declared $2.00 quarterly dividend on May 12 after Q1 beat fueled by Power Systems data center demandPositive▶
On May 12, 2026, Cummins declared a $2.00 quarterly dividend payable June 4 to holders of record May 22. The dividend follows a strong May 5 Q1 2026 report: revenue of $8.4B (+3% YoY, slightly above $8.34B consensus), and management raised 2026 revenue guidance to +8% to +11%. Power Systems revenue surged to $1.96B with EBITDA margin expanding to 29.5% from 23.6% on robust data center power generation demand, favorable pricing, and tariff recoveries. The company returned $519M to shareholders in Q1 and recorded charges on the sale of its low-pressure fuel cell business. Insider selling activity: CHRO Marvin Boakye sold 3,481 shares on May 8; VP Nathan Stoner sold 607 shares May 11. Bear case: Q1 GAAP EPS of $4.71 missed $5.61 consensus and was down from $5.96 YoY; truck weakness offsetting Power Systems strength signals cyclical risk if data center capex normalizes.
May 13Cummins raises 2026 revenue guidance to +8-11% on power generation strength; multiple firms hike price targets including Evercore to $845.Positive▶
Cummins raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to +8% to +11% (from prior range) after Q1 revenue of $8.4B (+3% YoY) was driven by surging power generation demand (notably data centers) that more than offset a 20% drop in North America truck unit volumes; international revenue rose 16% on China strength. The Board declared a $2.00 quarterly dividend payable June 4. On May 6, Evercore ISI raised its target to $845 from $694 and Truist to $815 from $730, with JPMorgan, Barclays, Morgan Stanley and Citi also revising higher. CMI is up ~116% over the past year. The company also recorded charges on the sale of its low-pressure fuel cell business as it refocuses Accelera.
May 12Cummins raises 2026 revenue guidance to 8-11% growth on Power Systems data center surge; insiders sell shares May 8 and May 11.Positive▶
Cummins raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to 8-11% growth (from prior outlook) and EBITDA to 17.75-18.50% on stronger demand across multiple markets, particularly North America on-highway and power generation. Q1 2026 revenue rose 3% YoY to $8.4B and beat consensus, with GAAP EPS of $4.71. Power Systems revenue surged to $1.96B with EBITDA margin expanding to 29.5% from 23.6%, driven by data center power generation demand outpacing expectations along with favorable pricing and tariff recoveries. The quarter included a $199M ($1.44/share) charge from the sale of the low-pressure fuel cell business. Cummins returned $519M to shareholders. Stock traded up 4.5% to $686.50 immediately post-results. Insider selling continued: HR chief sold 3,481 shares across multiple May 8 trades, and VP-China ABO Nathan Stoner sold 607 shares on May 11. Cummins was named to Ethisphere's 2026 World's Most Ethical Companies. Risk: North America truck weakness (sales -6%) offsets some of the power-gen strength.
Sector Peers
| Company | Price | Day | 1M | Fwd P/E | Beta | Mkt Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CATCATERPILLAR | $991.23 | +3.69% | +13.0% | 32.8x | 1.60 | $454.1B |
| CMICUMMINS | $716.50 | -0.18% | +7.0% | 21.1x | 1.24 | $98.9B |
| PCARPACCAR | $119.03 | +1.44% | +6.5% | 17.6x | 0.99 | $62.6B |
| WABWABTEC | $274.80 | +1.08% | +5.7% | 22.5x | 0.94 | $46.5B |
| GEGENERAL | $359.14 | +0.59% | +19.1% | 41.2x | 1.38 | $373.7B |
| GEVGE | $1,111.86 | +6.01% | +8.3% | 45.3x | 1.04 | $298.2B |
Key Fundamentals
RSI (14-Day)
52-Week Range
Moving Averages
Price above both MAs — bullish structure.