AI Boom Ignites 4.4% Global Trade Surge in 2025, Overcoming Tariff Headwinds

This growth occurred despite an increase in U.S. tariffs, which the World Trade Organization had initially predicted would lead to a slight decline in trade flows. Several factors contributed to this unexpected resilience, including the subsequent lowering of some tariff rates, limited retaliatory measures from other countries, and Chinese businesses finding alternative markets.

A significant driver was the boom in AI-related investment, which boosted U.S. imports, particularly from Asia. While trade is expected to slow in 2026 due to the lingering effects of tariffs and moderating AI investment, recent U.S. Supreme Court rulings on tariffs and the introduction of a temporary 10% across-the-board duty may create short-term trade surges as businesses stock up.

The AI boom alone contributed an estimated $272 billion to global trade in data-center equipment in the first half of 2025.