Vistra CorpNYSE: VST
Utilities · Electric Utilities
$150.61
+1.03%
Vol: 507K
Research Digest
Monday, June 15, 2026
No significant overnight updates
No material news in the last 48 hours.
Previous Market Intelligence
13 daysJun 14No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
May 21Vistra shares rose 6.9% to $144 on May 20, 2026 amid record Q1 results, IG rating upgrade and JPMorgan target hikePositive▶
Vistra reported Q1 2026 revenue of $5.64B (vs $5.24B consensus) and net income of $1.03B on May 7, with record adjusted EBITDA of $1,494M. The company reaffirmed FY26 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8B-$7.6B and was upgraded to investment grade by a second major rating agency. JPMorgan raised its price target to $93 from $89 on May 12 with an Overweight rating, and 13 analysts forecast 2026 revenue of $23B (+20% YoY). Vistra continues to target a 2H 2026 close on its 5,500-MW Cogentrix natural gas acquisition and is progressing long-term PPAs with Meta at PJM nuclear sites. Shares rose 6.9% to $144 on May 20 as AI-driven power demand themes remain a core driver. The company also completed a $6.13B multiyear share repurchase program.
May 20JPMorgan raised Vistra's price target to $93 from $89 (Overweight) on May 12 following record Q1 results, Fitch IG upgrade, and signed long-term PPAs with Meta at PJM nuclear sites.Positive▶
JPMorgan lifted its Vistra PT to $93 from $89 on May 12, maintaining Overweight after Q1 revenue of $5.64B (vs $5.24B consensus) and adjusted EBITDA of $1.494B. Vistra reaffirmed 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8B-$7.6B and Adjusted FCFbG of $3.925B-$4.725B. Fitch upgraded Vistra to Investment Grade in May, following S&P's upgrade last year, validating the deleveraging story. Strategically, Vistra agreed to acquire the 5,500-MW Cogentrix natural gas portfolio (targeted H2 2026 close) and signed long-term PPAs with Meta at PJM nuclear sites. Risk: shares fell 8.2% post-earnings despite the beats, signaling profit-taking on the data-center power trade, and 2026 volumes are now nearly fully hedged limiting near-term upside to rising power prices.
May 19Vistra reported record Q1 with $1.03B net income, announced 5,500-MW Cogentrix gas portfolio acquisition, and won second investment-grade upgrade from Fitch.Positive▶
Vistra reported Q1 2026 (May 7) revenue of $5.64B vs. $5.24B consensus, net income $1.029B, adjusted EBITDA $1.494B. Announced plans to acquire 5,500-MW Cogentrix natural gas generation portfolio (closing H2 2026) and signed long-term Meta PPAs at PJM nuclear sites. Fitch upgraded to Investment Grade (second major agency). 2026 EBITDA guidance reaffirmed at $6.8B-$7.6B. JPMorgan raised PT to $93 from $89 (May 12); Wells Fargo and BMO maintained Buy. Bear case: stock fell 8.2% post-print on profit-taking despite strong results.
May 18No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
May 15JPMorgan raised Vistra price target to $93 from $89 on May 11 as Q1 EPS of $2.87 beat estimates on AI-driven power demand.Positive▶
Vistra Corp posted a strong Q1 2026 with revenue of $5.64B (vs $5.24B consensus) and EPS of $2.87, with Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $1.49B. Fitch upgraded the corporate credit rating to Investment Grade following S&P's upgrade last year, reflecting balance sheet improvement. The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.2290 per share and continues integrating the $4B Cogentrix acquisition expected to expand capacity 20% through 2027. AI and data center demand is driving growth, supported by disciplined hedging. JPMorgan raised its price target to $93 on May 11. Risk: operational integration of acquisitions and weather-driven retail margin volatility.
May 14Vistra reports Q1 2026 net income of $1.03B, reaffirms full-year guidance, advances $4B Cogentrix acquisition and Meta nuclear PPAsPositive▶
Vistra reported Q1 2026 net income of $1,029 million and Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $1,494 million on May 7, beating estimates with EPS of $2.87. The company reaffirmed 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8B-$7.6B and Adjusted FCF guidance of $3.925B-$4.725B. Fitch upgraded Vistra to Investment Grade, joining S&P. Strategic initiatives include the pending $4 billion acquisition of the 5,500-MW Cogentrix natural gas portfolio expected to close in H2 2026, and long-term power purchase agreements signed with Meta at PJM nuclear sites. Vistra has executed ~$6.3B in share repurchases since 2021 and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.2290. JPMorgan raised its price target to $93 from $89; BMO Capital rates Buy. Shares traded around $142.80.
May 13Vistra shares hit a crossroads on May 11 as analysts debate whether AI/data-center demand can offset the margin compression flagged after Q1 results.Mixed▶
On May 11, 2026, multiple analyses highlighted Vistra at a crossroads following its strong Q1 2026 earnings but weakening profitability profile. Net margin has compressed from 14.3% to 4.2% year-over-year, and the stock has been weak even as the broader market grinds higher. The bull case rests on the pending $4.7 billion Cogentrix Energy acquisition (5,500 MW natural gas portfolio targeted to close in H2 2026), Meta long-term PPAs for ~2,600 MW at PJM nuclear sites, and reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8B-$7.6B. Recent S&P and Fitch upgrades to Investment Grade strengthen the balance sheet. Analysts continue to view VST as a long-term compounder tied to AI/data center power demand, with 30%+ projected EPS growth through 2028.
May 12Vistra beats Q1 2026 with EPS of $2.87, gets Fitch IG upgrade and reaffirms guidancePositive▶
Vistra reported Q1 2026 EPS of $2.87, beating the $2.21 consensus by 29.9%, with revenue up 43% to $5.64 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.494 billion. Fitch upgraded VST's long-term issuer rating to investment grade (BBB-), following S&P's earlier action. The company reaffirmed 2026 EBITDA guidance of $6.8B–$7.6B and raised its quarterly dividend. Vistra continues progress on the $4 billion Cogentrix 5,500-MW gas portfolio acquisition expected to close H2 2026. Shares saw pressure earlier on data-center exposure concerns but the credit upgrade and hedged earnings visibility support the bull thesis.
May 11Vistra reported Q1 2026 EPS of $2.18 beating $1.32 consensus, reaffirmed $6.8-$7.6B EBITDA guidance, and received its second Investment Grade rating upgrade from Fitch.Positive▶
Vistra Corp reported Q1 2026 results on May 7 with net income of $1.029B and ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA of $1.49B (up from $1.24B). Revenue of $5.64B exceeded $5.24B consensus and EPS of $2.18 crushed expectations of $1.32. The company reaffirmed full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8B-$7.6B and FCFbG guidance of $3.925B-$4.725B. Fitch upgraded Vistra to Investment Grade, the second major agency to do so after S&P. Vistra continues to target H2 2026 close of the 5,500-MW Cogentrix natural gas portfolio acquisition and has signed long-term PPAs with Meta at PJM nuclear sites. The company has hedged approximately 98% of expected 2026 generation. Risk: TTM net margin compressed to 4.2% from 14.3% prior year, drawing analyst caution.
May 8Vistra reports record $1.494B adjusted EBITDA, Fitch upgrades to investment grade, secures Meta PPAsPositive▶
Vistra reported Q1 2026 record adjusted EBITDA of $1.494B with net income of $1.029B and EPS of $2.90 (beat $1.46 estimate). Fitch upgraded corporate credit rating to investment grade (BBB-) following S&P upgrade. Strategic wins: Announced 20-year PPAs with Meta for 2,600+ MW zero-carbon energy across three nuclear plants (2,176 MW operating + 433 MW increases). Planned acquisition of 5,500 MW Cogentrix natural gas portfolio targeting H2 2026 close. FY26 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA guidance $3.93-4.73B. Board declared $0.2290/share quarterly dividend. Stock down 2.7% post-earnings.
May 7Vistra swung to Q1 profit; Fitch upgraded to investment grade and dividend raised to $0.229Positive▶
Vistra reported Q1 2026 net income of $1.029B and adjusted EBITDA of $1.494B. Fitch upgraded corporate issuer rating to investment grade (following S&P upgrade last year). Company raised quarterly dividend to $0.229. Announced 5,500-MW Cogentrix natural gas acquisition (close H2 2026) and signed Meta long-term power purchase agreements. Completed $4B senior notes offering. Reaffirmed FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8-7.6B and FCF guidance of $3.925-4.725B. Stock poised for growth on AI data center demand. Shares climbed after strong Q1 results.
May 6Vistra Q1 earnings report scheduled for May 7 with expected 380% EPS growth to $1.32Positive▶
Vistra Corporation will report Q1 2026 results on May 7, 2026. Wall Street expects $1.32 EPS and $5.22 billion in revenue, representing a 380% year-over-year increase from prior year. The company is experiencing growth driven by AI-related power demand and strategic acquisitions. Fitch Ratings recently upgraded Vistra to investment grade. As of May 6, VST traded at $160.38 with a Strong Buy consensus rating from 19 analysts.
Sector Peers
| Company | Price | Day | 1M | Fwd P/E | Beta | Mkt Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOSOUTHERN | $93.62 | -0.66% | +0.6% | 19.2x | 0.36 | $106.2B |
| CEGCONSTELLATION | $260.28 | -8.94% | +9.1% | 21.1x | 1.16 | $103.2B |
| DUKDUKE | $124.93 | +0.22% | +1.5% | 17.4x | 0.40 | $97.2B |
| AEPAMERICAN | $128.54 | -0.83% | +1.5% | 18.9x | 0.55 | $70.5B |
| ETRENTERGY | $110.28 | -1.77% | +2.5% | 22.3x | 0.53 | $51.4B |
| VSTVISTRA | $150.61 | +1.03% | +9.0% | 13.6x | 1.45 | $50.3B |
Key Fundamentals
RSI (14-Day)
52-Week Range
Moving Averages
Price below 200d MA — bearish structure.