Vistra CorpNYSE: VST
Utilities · Electric Utilities
$163.79
+3.12%
Vol: 5.4M
Research Digest
Friday, June 19, 2026
No significant overnight updates
No material news in the last 48 hours.
Previous Market Intelligence
13 daysJun 18No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
Jun 17No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
Jun 16No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
Jun 15No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
Jun 14No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
May 21Vistra shares rose 6.9% to $144 on May 20, 2026 amid record Q1 results, IG rating upgrade and JPMorgan target hikePositive▶
Vistra reported Q1 2026 revenue of $5.64B (vs $5.24B consensus) and net income of $1.03B on May 7, with record adjusted EBITDA of $1,494M. The company reaffirmed FY26 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8B-$7.6B and was upgraded to investment grade by a second major rating agency. JPMorgan raised its price target to $93 from $89 on May 12 with an Overweight rating, and 13 analysts forecast 2026 revenue of $23B (+20% YoY). Vistra continues to target a 2H 2026 close on its 5,500-MW Cogentrix natural gas acquisition and is progressing long-term PPAs with Meta at PJM nuclear sites. Shares rose 6.9% to $144 on May 20 as AI-driven power demand themes remain a core driver. The company also completed a $6.13B multiyear share repurchase program.
May 20JPMorgan raised Vistra's price target to $93 from $89 (Overweight) on May 12 following record Q1 results, Fitch IG upgrade, and signed long-term PPAs with Meta at PJM nuclear sites.Positive▶
JPMorgan lifted its Vistra PT to $93 from $89 on May 12, maintaining Overweight after Q1 revenue of $5.64B (vs $5.24B consensus) and adjusted EBITDA of $1.494B. Vistra reaffirmed 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8B-$7.6B and Adjusted FCFbG of $3.925B-$4.725B. Fitch upgraded Vistra to Investment Grade in May, following S&P's upgrade last year, validating the deleveraging story. Strategically, Vistra agreed to acquire the 5,500-MW Cogentrix natural gas portfolio (targeted H2 2026 close) and signed long-term PPAs with Meta at PJM nuclear sites. Risk: shares fell 8.2% post-earnings despite the beats, signaling profit-taking on the data-center power trade, and 2026 volumes are now nearly fully hedged limiting near-term upside to rising power prices.
May 19Vistra reported record Q1 with $1.03B net income, announced 5,500-MW Cogentrix gas portfolio acquisition, and won second investment-grade upgrade from Fitch.Positive▶
Vistra reported Q1 2026 (May 7) revenue of $5.64B vs. $5.24B consensus, net income $1.029B, adjusted EBITDA $1.494B. Announced plans to acquire 5,500-MW Cogentrix natural gas generation portfolio (closing H2 2026) and signed long-term Meta PPAs at PJM nuclear sites. Fitch upgraded to Investment Grade (second major agency). 2026 EBITDA guidance reaffirmed at $6.8B-$7.6B. JPMorgan raised PT to $93 from $89 (May 12); Wells Fargo and BMO maintained Buy. Bear case: stock fell 8.2% post-print on profit-taking despite strong results.
May 18No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
May 15JPMorgan raised Vistra price target to $93 from $89 on May 11 as Q1 EPS of $2.87 beat estimates on AI-driven power demand.Positive▶
Vistra Corp posted a strong Q1 2026 with revenue of $5.64B (vs $5.24B consensus) and EPS of $2.87, with Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $1.49B. Fitch upgraded the corporate credit rating to Investment Grade following S&P's upgrade last year, reflecting balance sheet improvement. The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.2290 per share and continues integrating the $4B Cogentrix acquisition expected to expand capacity 20% through 2027. AI and data center demand is driving growth, supported by disciplined hedging. JPMorgan raised its price target to $93 on May 11. Risk: operational integration of acquisitions and weather-driven retail margin volatility.
May 14Vistra reports Q1 2026 net income of $1.03B, reaffirms full-year guidance, advances $4B Cogentrix acquisition and Meta nuclear PPAsPositive▶
Vistra reported Q1 2026 net income of $1,029 million and Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $1,494 million on May 7, beating estimates with EPS of $2.87. The company reaffirmed 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8B-$7.6B and Adjusted FCF guidance of $3.925B-$4.725B. Fitch upgraded Vistra to Investment Grade, joining S&P. Strategic initiatives include the pending $4 billion acquisition of the 5,500-MW Cogentrix natural gas portfolio expected to close in H2 2026, and long-term power purchase agreements signed with Meta at PJM nuclear sites. Vistra has executed ~$6.3B in share repurchases since 2021 and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.2290. JPMorgan raised its price target to $93 from $89; BMO Capital rates Buy. Shares traded around $142.80.
May 13Vistra shares hit a crossroads on May 11 as analysts debate whether AI/data-center demand can offset the margin compression flagged after Q1 results.Mixed▶
On May 11, 2026, multiple analyses highlighted Vistra at a crossroads following its strong Q1 2026 earnings but weakening profitability profile. Net margin has compressed from 14.3% to 4.2% year-over-year, and the stock has been weak even as the broader market grinds higher. The bull case rests on the pending $4.7 billion Cogentrix Energy acquisition (5,500 MW natural gas portfolio targeted to close in H2 2026), Meta long-term PPAs for ~2,600 MW at PJM nuclear sites, and reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8B-$7.6B. Recent S&P and Fitch upgrades to Investment Grade strengthen the balance sheet. Analysts continue to view VST as a long-term compounder tied to AI/data center power demand, with 30%+ projected EPS growth through 2028.
May 12Vistra beats Q1 2026 with EPS of $2.87, gets Fitch IG upgrade and reaffirms guidancePositive▶
Vistra reported Q1 2026 EPS of $2.87, beating the $2.21 consensus by 29.9%, with revenue up 43% to $5.64 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.494 billion. Fitch upgraded VST's long-term issuer rating to investment grade (BBB-), following S&P's earlier action. The company reaffirmed 2026 EBITDA guidance of $6.8B–$7.6B and raised its quarterly dividend. Vistra continues progress on the $4 billion Cogentrix 5,500-MW gas portfolio acquisition expected to close H2 2026. Shares saw pressure earlier on data-center exposure concerns but the credit upgrade and hedged earnings visibility support the bull thesis.
Sector Peers
| Company | Price | Day | 1M | Fwd P/E | Beta | Mkt Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOSOUTHERN | $93.26 | +0.78% | — | 19.9x | 0.33 | $110.5B |
| DUKDUKE | $123.92 | +0.15% | — | 18.1x | 0.37 | $101.0B |
| CEGCONSTELLATION | $274.07 | +2.58% | — | 17.6x | 1.12 | $85.4B |
| AEPAMERICAN | $127.69 | -0.45% | — | 20.2x | 0.50 | $75.4B |
| ETRENTERGY | $111.04 | +0.16% | — | 22.7x | 0.49 | $53.7B |
| VSTVISTRA | $163.79 | +3.12% | — | 14.0x | 1.41 | $50.9B |
Key Fundamentals
RSI (14-Day)
52-Week Range
Moving Averages
Price below 200d MA — bearish structure.