Seagate Technology Holdings PLCNasdaq: STX
Information Technology · Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
$726.74
+7.88%
Vol: 13.1M
Research Digest
Friday, May 1, 2026
Seagate soars 19% overnight after Q3 beat and strong Q4 guidance driven by AI storage demand exceeding expectations
Seagate beat Q3 2026 expectations with $3.11 billion revenue (+44% YoY) and $4.10 non-GAAP EPS, guiding Q4 at $3.45 billion revenue and $5.00 EPS. AI-driven demand for data center storage now comprises 80% of revenue, with hyperscaler capacity nearly fully allocated through 2027. Stock surged 19% overnight and is up 147% year-to-date at $711. Rosenblatt raised its price target to $1,000 from $500, with 11 other analysts hiking targets. New 52-week high achieved. The AI infrastructure buildout provides multi-year visibility.
Previous Market Intelligence
13 daysApr 30Seagate Technology surges 12% after Q3 FY26 earnings beat with $3.11B revenue, 32% margins, and $1B free cash flow milestonePositive▶
Seagate Technology delivered market-beating Q3 FY26 results on April 28-29 with revenue of $3.11B (+44% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $4.10 (+17% vs. consensus). Operating margin expanded to 32.1% from 20% YoY, and free cash flow margin reached 30.6% from 10%. HAMR storage technology qualified by two major cloud providers, demonstrating maturity. Raised medium-term revenue growth guidance to "minimum 20%" annually from prior low-to-mid teens. Morgan Stanley raised PT to $767 from $582, Mizuho to $700 from $565, and Citi to $740 from $595, all maintaining strong Buy/Outperform ratings. Stock gained 130% YTD, added $15B in market cap. Data center accounted for 88% of exabyte shipments, showing strong cloud/AI exposure. Valuation stretched given recent run.
Apr 29Seagate crushed Q3 FY26: GAAP EPS +111% YoY to $3.38, revenue +44% to $3.11B; stock soars 12.13%Positive▶
Seagate delivered record March quarter results exceeding guidance with GAAP EPS of $3.38 (+111% YoY) and revenue of $3.11B (+44% YoY). Operating margin improved to 32.1% from 20% YoY, and free cash flow margin soared to 30.6% from 10%. Company guided Q4 FY26 revenue of $3.45B +/- $100M and non-GAAP EPS of $5.00 +/- $0.20, signaling new era of structural growth driven by AI data applications. Stock rallied 12.13% on results; 11 analysts raised PT with highest from Rosenblatt ($1,000 from $500). Consensus: 21 Buys.
Apr 16Seagate hits 10-day rally with 47% surge on HDD shortage; Q3 earnings April 28Positive▶
Seagate Technology surged 47% over 10 trading days through mid-April as AI-driven demand for storage accelerated. HDD market remains sold-out through 2026 with long-term contracts extending further, signaling strong pricing power. Multiple analysts issued bullish calls, naming STX a Top Pick, citing strengthening demand and implied shortages through 2028. Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings due April 28. Despite gains, stock trades at substantial premium to intrinsic value; insider selling noted.
Apr 14Citigroup raises price target to $595 and maintains buy rating; stock surges 39% amid 8-day winning streak on HAMR technology momentum.Positive▶
Seagate Technology's stock hit an 8-day winning streak with cumulative gains of 39%, driven by strong demand from hyperscale data centers and successful commercialization of Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) technology. Citigroup raised its price target from $480 to $595 on April 13, citing potential HDD supply shortages through 2028 that could enhance pricing power. Morgan Stanley previously named the stock a Top Pick with a $582 target. The company's Mozaic 4+ HAMR platform is now in production with major cloud providers, supporting up to 44TB capacity.
Apr 13Seagate named Morgan Stanley Top Pick; four consecutive earnings beats on AI/HDD demand surgePositive▶
Morgan Stanley raised Seagate price target to $582 from $468 and named stock a Top Pick, citing brightening HDD market outlook and strengthening datacenter demand. Mizuho raised target to $565 from $475. Stock closed at $503.13 (+1.87% after-hours). Company completed sale of Lyve Cloud business to Wasabi. Four consecutive earnings beats with rising margins. FY2025 revenue reached $9.10B (+38.86% YoY). Ramping HAMR-based Mozaic drives.
Apr 10Seagate hits all-time high as Morgan Stanley names it top pick amid AI storage supercycle momentum.Positive▶
Seagate Technology stock surged 8.1% on April 6 after Morgan Stanley elevated it to top pick for the data storage sector, replacing Western Digital. Q2 2026 revenue reached $2.83 billion beating estimates with record 40.1% non-GAAP gross margin. The company achieved four consecutive earnings beats with strong margins and revenue recovery. Approximately 80-90% of revenue derives from selling high-capacity drives to hyperscalers, with Mozaic 4+ platform targeting full production in H2 2026 at 44TB capacities.
Apr 9Seagate receives multiple analyst upgrades and sets new profitability records on strong AI data center demandPositive▶
Seagate Technology reported fiscal Q2 2026 revenue of $2.83 billion with record-setting gross margin of 41.6%, operating margin, and non-GAAP EPS of $2.60, exceeding expectations. Morgan Stanley's Erik Woodring raised Seagate's price target to $582 (from $468) and flagged STX as the company's top tech hardware pick. JPMorgan issued an "Overweight" rating with a $525 target, highlighting hyperscaler data storage demand and favorable disk pricing. Bernstein lifted its price target to $620 maintaining "Outperform." The company continues to benefit from AI technology-driven resource-heavy demand, with the stock rising nearly 6% in early April 2026 following bullish analyst sentiment. Fiscal Q1 2026 revenue was $2.63 billion with record 39.4% GAAP gross margin.
Apr 8Morgan Stanley names Seagate top IT hardware pick on hyperscaler demand and HDD pricing strengthPositive▶
Seagate stock surged 7% on April 6 after Morgan Stanley elevated it to a top pick, citing sustained hyperscaler demand and improved customer visibility for hard disk drives. The company is benefiting from capacity sold-out through 2026 with multi-year contracts extending to 2028, supporting firmer pricing. Mozaic 4+ HAMR platform is qualified and in production with major cloud providers, supporting up to 44TB capacity. JPMorgan maintains Overweight with $525 target; Bernstein raised target to $620. Seagate reported four consecutive earnings beats with 38.86% revenue growth in FY2025 to $9.10 billion.
Apr 7Morgan Stanley names Seagate top IT hardware pick with $582 target; stock up 7.13% on April 6Positive▶
Seagate Technology shares jumped 7.13% on April 6 after Morgan Stanley elevated it to top IT hardware pick and raised the price target to $582 from $468. Morgan Stanley cited sustained hyperscaler demand strength, improved customer visibility, and expectations for firmer HDD pricing into 2027. Seagate's HAMR technology enables higher-capacity drives critical for AI model deployment. The company trades near all-time highs with a 580% gain over the past year. FY2025 revenue grew 38.86% to $9.10B with earnings jumping 338.51% to $1.47B. Consensus recommendation is Outperform (1.9 rating) with average target of $485.88 and upside to $700.
Apr 6Seagate surges 23.62% after Q2 earnings beat; management guides Q1 2027 revenue of $2.9B on strong data center demandPositive▶
Seagate Technology reported Q2 2026 EPS of $3.11 (11.47% above forecast) and revenue of $2.83B (3.66% above forecast), driving 23.62% stock surge to $442.93 in after-hours. Revenue up 22% YoY with non-GAAP gross margin of 42.2% (up 210 bps) and free cash flow up 42% QoQ to $607M. Current price $429.36 after 1.47% 24-hour gain. 19 analysts recommend Buy with $483.07 target (high $700, low $375). JPMorgan sees pullback as buying opportunity. Management guides Q1 2027 revenue ~$2.9B with continued improvements throughout 2026.
Apr 3J.P. Morgan initiates Overweight with $525 PT; Seagate surges 350% YoY as Mozaic 4+ HAMR drives 44TB capacity for hyperscalers.Positive▶
Seagate Technology soared 350% in the past year driven by explosive AI data center storage demand. J.P. Morgan initiated coverage at Overweight with $525 target, projecting 25% revenue and 50%+ operating earnings CAGR. Announced Mozaic 4+ HAMR-based platform qualified with two hyperscale cloud providers supporting 44TB capacities.
Apr 2Seagate stock up 8% in 24 hours; JP Morgan initiates with Overweight and $525 target; HAMR drives qualified and in production with hyperscalers.Positive▶
Seagate Technology trading at $427.56, up 8.0% in 24 hours and 410.58% over the past year. JP Morgan initiated coverage with Overweight rating and $525 price target. Multiple analyst upgrades: Mizuho (Outperform, $475), Citigroup (Buy, $480), Cantor Fitzgerald (Overweight, $650), Baird ($505). CEO William Mosley sold 20,000 shares on April 1 at average price $420.73. Seagate showing 22% year-over-year revenue increase driven by AI data center demand. Mozaic 4+ HAMR drives qualified and in production with major hyperscalers. Consensus 25-analyst recommendation: 19 Buy, 6 Hold at $461 average target. Q3 2026 EPS guidance 3.20-3.60.
Apr 1JP Morgan initiates Seagate Technology with Overweight rating and $525 price target; company projects 50% gross margins by end of 2027.Positive▶
Seagate received strong coverage from JP Morgan with Overweight rating and $525 PT, projecting gross margins reaching 50% by end of 2027. Bernstein maintains $620 PT. Mozaic 4 platform qualified with a second customer. Dividend of $0.74 per share declared, payable April 8.
Sector Peers
| Company | Price | Day | 1M | Fwd P/E | Beta | Mkt Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPLAPPLE | $280.06 | +3.21% | +4.8% | 28.9x | 1.11 | $3.98T |
| SNDKSANDISK | $1,182.72 | +7.86% | +51.3% | 9.3x | — | $161.8B |
| STXSEAGATE | $726.74 | +7.88% | +48.6% | 25.6x | 1.63 | $150.9B |
| WDCWESTERN | $430.70 | -0.88% | +42.9% | 29.7x | 1.83 | $148.6B |
| DELLDELL | $209.77 | +0.39% | +20.6% | 14.2x | 0.95 | $135.9B |
| HPEHEWLETT | $28.50 | -0.96% | +17.1% | 10.6x | 1.22 | $38.2B |
Key Fundamentals
RSI (14-Day)
52-Week Range
Moving Averages
Price above both MAs — bullish structure.