Moderna, IncNasdaq: MRNA
Health Care · Biotechnology
$45.27
-1.47%
Vol: 9.1M
Research Digest
Friday, May 1, 2026
Moderna beats Q1 revenue by 55% on strong international sales; skin cancer vaccine shows 49% recurrence reduction
Moderna reported Q1 2026 revenue of $389M beating expectations by 54.51%, driven by 80% international sales. Despite $1.34B net loss including litigation charge, revenue beat reflects pivotal moment for struggling vaccine maker finding growth outside US. Five-year skin cancer vaccine study shows 49% reduction in recurrence risk. Approved mCOMBRIX, first flu+COVID combo vaccine in EU. Initiated Phase 3 study for lung cancer vaccine. Trump administration canceled $766M pandemic flu vaccine grant. Company reaffirmed FY26 revenue guidance of up to 10% growth.
Previous Market Intelligence
13 daysApr 30Moderna stock down 4% on EU vaccine approval and funding concerns as mRNA-1083 receives European Commission marketing authorization for adults 50+.Mixed▶
Moderna announced European Commission granted marketing authorization for combined influenza/COVID-19 vaccine (mRNA-1083) for adults ages 50+. Stock declined 4% on post-news pullback as attention shifts to near-term cash burn and Q1 2026 earnings on May 1. The Trump administration canceled $766 million awarded to Moderna for pandemic influenza vaccine development including H5N1. Company is proceeding with bird flu vaccine trial despite funding loss. Stock trading at $45.68 with 52-week range of $22.28-$59.55. Moderna is preparing earnings report with forecasted loss of $2.28 per share despite 106.9% revenue increase.
Apr 29Trump administration cancels $766 million H5N1 vaccine funding; EU grants marketing authorization for mRNA-1083 influenza/COVID vaccine.Mixed▶
Moderna's skin cancer vaccine showed 49% reduction in recurrence risk in five-year study, boosting 2025 revenue forecast to $1.9B. However, Trump administration canceled $766M in funding for H5N1 pandemic influenza vaccine development. EU approved mRNA-1083 combined influenza/COVID vaccine for ages 50+. Company reports Q1 2026 earnings May 1 with expected loss of $2.29 EPS. Stock down 4.0% but median analyst target is $30.
Apr 16Moderna Q1 2026 earnings call May 1; raised 2025 revenue to $1.9B on skin cancer vaccine 49% recurrence reduction.Mixed▶
Moderna surged 8.8% on positive five-year skin cancer vaccine results showing 49% reduction in recurrence risk, raising 2025 revenue forecast to $1.9 billion. The Trump administration canceled $766 million for pandemic influenza vaccine development including H5N1. Q1 2026 earnings reported May 1, 2026 at 8:00 a.m. ET. Stock closed at $54.26 on April 16, up 2.69%, outpacing S&P 500 0.8% gain. 52-week high of $59.55, low of $22.28. Median analyst price target $30.00 from 13 firms, well below current price. Patent settlement with Arbutus/Genevant ongoing.
Apr 15Moderna surges 72% in Q1 2026 (best healthcare performer in S&P 500); FDA approves expedited flu vaccine review.Positive▶
Moderna delivered the strongest Q1 2026 healthcare performance in the S&P 500, surging 72%. FDA agreed to expedited review of experimental mRNA flu vaccine mRNA-1010. Company will present Phase 3 data at ESCMID 2026 (April 17-21, Munich). mRNA-1010 filings expected 2026 in US, Europe, Canada, Australia. Fidelity and BNP Paribas boosted stakes; Goldman Sachs lifted price target.
Apr 14Moderna shares surge on skin cancer vaccine data and FDA accelerated flu vaccine review with August decision expected.Positive▶
Moderna gained momentum on positive Phase 3 flu vaccine and RSV vaccine data with FDA accelerated review slated for August 2026 decision. Five-year skin cancer vaccine study showed 49% reduction in recurrence risk, supporting Moderna 2.0 pivot. Patent settlement provided relief with shares rising 10% in premarket. Consensus Hold with $34.27 target.
Apr 13Moderna surges on FDA reversal to reconsider mRNA flu vaccine; positive Phase 3 data on mRNA-1010 and mRESVIA.Positive▶
Moderna shares surged 8.8% following positive five-year skin cancer vaccine study (49% recurrence risk reduction). FDA announced it will consider Moderna's mRNA flu vaccine after initial refusal, with decision by Aug 5. Phase 3 data on mRNA-1010 flu vaccine and mRESVIA RSV vaccine show strong immune response. Genevant/Arbutus patent settlement removes overhang. YTD stock rallied 72%. Goldman Sachs lifted price target.
Apr 10Moderna surges on skin cancer vaccine results; FDA reviews flu vaccinePositive▶
Shares surged 8.8% on 49% reduction in skin cancer recurrence risk. FDA reviewing flu vaccine candidate. Secured UK, Canada, Australia partnerships.
Apr 9Moderna reports positive flu and RSV vaccine data; FDA approves mRNA flu vaccine reviewPositive▶
Moderna announced positive Phase 3 clinical data for investigational influenza vaccine mRNA-1010 and RSV vaccine mRESVIA with favorable immune responses and safety profiles. The FDA reversed course and will review Moderna's seasonal mRNA flu vaccine application with a mid-2026 decision date. The company is positioning itself for growth beyond COVID-19, with advancements in cancer therapies and international expansion driving a 72% stock increase in Q1 2026.
Apr 8Moderna surged 72% in Q1 2026, best S&P 500 healthcare performance; Trump cancels $766M flu contract.Positive▶
MRNA delivered best Q1 healthcare performance, up 72%. Trump administration canceled $766M pandemic flu contract. RSV vaccine Phase 3 advancing. Earnings April 30.
Apr 7Moderna Surges 72% in Q1 2026, Presents Flu/RSV Data at ESCMID CongressPositive▶
Moderna stock surged 72% in Q1 2026. Company will present late-breaking oral presentations on revaccination data for mRNA-1010 (investigational flu vaccine) and mRESVIA (RSV vaccine) at ESCMID 2026 in Munich (April 17-21). FDA reversed earlier decision to accept mRNA-1010 application. EMA recommended marketing authorization for mCOMBRIAX (flu/COVID combo) in Feb 2026. Trading ~$48.70.
Apr 6Moderna settles patent dispute with 10% stock surge, FDA agrees to review flu shot applicationMixed▶
Moderna shares surged 10% in premarket trading after settling a long-running legal battle over COVID-19 vaccine technology with Genevant and Arbutus, agreeing to pay $950 million upfront plus $1.3 billion contingent on favorable Section 1498 appeal resolution. The FDA agreed to review Moderna's mRNA flu shot application, reversing an earlier refusal. The company is advancing Phase 3 H5 bird flu vaccine trials and plans to begin late-stage trials for COVID-19/flu combination vaccines. Despite a 96% one-year share price increase, analysts express concerns over declining revenue and profitability amid a 3.1% recent drop.
Apr 3Moderna reaches $2.25B patent settlement with Arbutus/Genevant and FDA agrees to review new mRNA flu vaccine.Mixed▶
Moderna settled a longstanding LNP patent dispute for $2.25B and secured FDA reconsideration of its mRNA flu vaccine with decision targeted by August 5, 2026. The company is pivoting toward cancer therapies as part of its Moderna 2.0 strategy, targeting 10% revenue growth in 2026 and cash breakeven by 2028.
Apr 2Moderna settles $950M LNP patent dispute with Arbutus and Genevant, shares rise 10% in premarket.Positive▶
Moderna settled its LNP patent dispute, paying $950 million upfront to Arbutus and Genevant, with shares rising 10% in premarket trading on the agreement. The company trades at $50.03 USD and is refocusing on cancer therapies and seasonal vaccine expansion, targeting up to 10% revenue growth in 2026. Moderna expects nine Phase 2/3 oncology readouts and plans to expand its seasonal vaccine franchise from three to six approved products by 2028. Despite a $2.82B loss in 2025, analysts remain cautiously optimistic with a neutral overall rating.
Sector Peers
| Company | Price | Day | 1M | Fwd P/E | Beta | Mkt Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRNAMODERNA | $45.27 | -1.47% | -5.8% | -9.7x | 1.34 | $18.2B |
| ABBVABBVIE | $207.05 | -2.02% | +2.2% | 13.1x | — | $373.8B |
| AMGNAMGEN | $330.27 | -4.62% | +1.1% | 14.8x | 0.47 | $186.7B |
| GILDGILEAD | $131.80 | +0.73% | -6.6% | 13.6x | 0.40 | $162.4B |
| VRTXVERTEX | $425.02 | -0.55% | -1.6% | 19.6x | 0.37 | $108.7B |
| REGNREGENERON | $702.19 | -0.69% | -7.3% | 13.0x | 0.40 | $74.1B |
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