Fair Isaac CorporationNYSE: FICO
Information Technology · Application Software
$1,033.91
+0.87%
Vol: 194K
Research Digest
Friday, May 1, 2026
FICO reports record Q2 2026 earnings but faces short pressure from Steve Eisman
Fair Isaac reported Q2 revenues of $692M up 39% YoY with GAAP EPS up 69%, but stock fell 4.8% after Eisman disclosed short position. Scores revenue grew 60% driven by mortgage surge, with $1.5B buyback authorization outstanding.
Previous Market Intelligence
13 daysApr 30Fair Isaac beats Q2 estimates with $11.14 EPS, 39% revenue growth driven by mortgage boom and score pricing (April 28)Positive▶
FICO reported exceptional Q2 2026 results with EPS of $11.14 (beat $6.59) and revenue of $691.7M (+38.7% YoY), crushing consensus estimates. Scores segment revenue surged 60% to $475M, driven by 72% jump in B2B scoring tied to higher mortgage origination pricing and volume. Software revenue rose 7% to $216.7M with ARR up 10%. The company raised full-year FY2026 guidance to $2.45B revenue and $35.60 GAAP EPS. Free cash flow surged to $214.3M from $65.5M YoY, reflecting strong operational performance. JPMorgan lowered PT to $1,225 from $1,325 (Neutral) due to conservative guidance.
Apr 29Fair Isaac Q2 2026 (fiscal): Revenue $692M (+39% YoY), EPS $11.14 (+69% YoY); mortgage revenue surged 127% YoY; raised FY2026 guidance.Positive▶
Fair Isaac reported fiscal Q2 2026 revenue of $692 million (+39% YoY) and GAAP net income of $264 million (+63% YoY) with GAAP EPS of $11.14 (+69% YoY). Scores segment revenue surged 60% to $474.97 million; Software grew 7% to $216.70 million. CEO William Lansing highlighted a 127% year-over-year increase in mortgage revenue driven by both higher prices and improved volumes. The company raised FY2026 guidance: revenues to $2.45 billion, GAAP net income to $825 million, GAAP EPS to $35.60 (vs. prior $33.47). FICO repurchased $605 million stock in Q2 (largest quarterly buyback) plus $170 million post-quarter. Stock up 5.7% on results but analyst price targets were lowered recently.
Apr 16FICO under government investigation; Q1 2026 EPS grew 48.1% to $9.58 despite VantageScore competitive threat.Mixed▶
Fair Isaac Corporation faces a government investigation by Senator Josh Hawley and litigation from the Schall Law Firm alleging false statements and securities violations. The company dominates 90% of the mortgage credit scoring market and is the only score accepted for conforming loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Despite regulatory pressures, Q1 2026 revenue grew 16% year-over-year to $512 million with EPS reaching $9.58, up 48.1% from $6.47 in the year-ago quarter. VantageScore 4.0 represents growing competitive threats in the mortgage sector. FICO stock is down 40% year-to-date but maintains analyst support with strong earnings growth and cash flow margins. The company plans to launch FICO Score 10T in H1 2026.
Apr 15Fair Isaac stock plummeted 13.99% amid ongoing SEC investigation; Barclays cuts price target from $2,400 to $1,950.Negative▶
Fair Isaac Corporation declined 39.3% over six months and dropped 13.99% in the past 24 hours to $922.37. The company faces regulatory scrutiny with Senator Hawley launching an investigation and the Schall Law Firm investigating securities law violations. Barclays lowered its price target from $2,400 to $1,950. Earnings release scheduled May 6.
Apr 14Fair Isaac surged 7.7% on April 13 after beating Q1 earnings with $7.33 EPS; regulatory pressure from CFPB and Senator Hawley.Mixed▶
Fair Isaac reported Q1 2026 EPS of $7.33 versus consensus $7.08, revenue $512M up 16% YoY. Projected FY2026 revenue of $2.35B. Barclays cut target from $2,400 to $1,950 on regulatory scrutiny. Verisk exploring VantageScore alternatives at $1.50 vs FICO $10 royalty. Board authorized $1.5B buyback.
Apr 13Fair Isaac plunges to 52-week low amid Senate investigation into credit score pricing and regulatory pressure from FHFA.Negative▶
FICO stock hit 52-week low of $969.32, down 51.16% year-over-year. Senate investigation (Sen. Josh Hawley) into FICO's 90% lender market dominance. FHFA calls for more affordable scoring. Barclays cut PT to $1,950; Goldman Sachs to $1,528. Raymond James maintains Outperform (PT $2,010). Launched Credit Insights Lab for alternative data.
Apr 10Goldman Sachs Lowers Price Target Amid Competition ConcernsNegative▶
Goldman reduced target from $1,770 to $1,528 citing VantageScore 4.0 competition. Despite 16% YoY revenue growth in Q1 FY2026.
Apr 9Fair Isaac Faces 24.5% Monthly Decline as Multiple Analysts Lower Price TargetsNegative▶
Fair Isaac Corporation faces significant headwinds with a 24.5% stock decline over the past month. Goldman Sachs lowered its price target from $1,770 to $1,528 on April 2, 2026. JPMorgan Chase reduced its target from $1,825 to $1,325 with a neutral rating, while Robert W. Baird cut from $1,960 to $1,547 with an outperform rating. Despite strong revenue growth and strategic partnerships, regulatory scrutiny and market volatility continue to impact the stock. Oak Thistle LLC increased its FICO position by 328.9% during the fourth quarter.
Apr 8Fair Isaac faces competitive pressure from mortgage credit scoring; JPMorgan cuts PT to $1,325.Negative▶
FICO declined 24.5% over past month on competitive concerns. JPMorgan lowered PT to $1,325 from $1,825. Baird cut to $1,547. VantageScore 4.0 threatens pricing power.
Apr 7FICO Slides on Mortgage Scoring Competition; Analyst DowngradesNegative▶
JPMorgan and Baird lowered price targets citing mortgage credit scoring competition and pricing pressure risk. Revenue grew 16.4% in Q4 but forward guidance disappointed. FICO Score Credit Insights Lab launched successfully. Stock faces headwinds from multi-model environment approval.
Apr 6Fair Isaac navigates mortgage scoring competition; stock down 20.5% YTD but analysts see 25.4% DCF upside.Negative▶
Fair Isaac Corp posted mixed Q4 results: 16.4% revenue growth but weak full-year guidance, driving 20.5% YTD stock decline to $1,089.76 (up 2.61% in past 24h). Renewed investor concerns about growing mortgage credit score competition pressuring pricing power. FHFA approval of FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 shifts to multi-model environment. FICO continues innovation: launched FICO Score Credit Insights Lab, deployed at Banco Santa Cruz. Analysts see 25.4% DCF upside potential despite sector headwinds. Next earnings May 6, 2026.
Apr 3FICO stock fell 21% mid-March amid mortgage scoring competition concerns; FICO Score 10T rollout underway; earnings April 28.Mixed▶
Fair Isaac shares dropped 21% between March 9-11 amid renewed investor concerns about competition in mortgage credit scoring. FICO Score 10T rollout is underway following late-2025 trended data agreement. The board authorized a $1.5B buyback program in February 2026. UBS maintained Neutral and lowered target to $1,350.
Apr 2FICO surpasses Q1 2026 earnings expectations amid mortgage scoring competition concernsMixed▶
Fair Isaac surpassed Q1 2026 earnings expectations with non-GAAP EPS of $7.33 versus forecast of $7.07 and revenue of $512 million versus $500.72M expected, a 16% year-over-year increase. However, the stock fell 2.8% in after-hours trading despite the earnings beat due to renewed investor concerns about growing competition in mortgage credit scoring pressuring pricing power. Robert W. Baird cut its price target from $1,960 to $1,547 on March 24, and JPMorgan cut from $1,825 to $1,325 on the same date, while UBS maintained Neutral with $1,350 target.
Sector Peers
| Company | Price | Day | 1M | Fwd P/E | Beta | Mkt Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FICOFAIR | $1,033.91 | +0.87% | -6.3% | 19.0x | 1.38 | $23.8B |
| ORCLORACLE | $171.78 | +6.44% | +10.9% | 20.1x | 1.60 | $464.2B |
| PLTRPALANTIR | $144.27 | +3.71% | -6.0% | 74.6x | 1.67 | $333.5B |
| APPAPPLOVIN | $461.07 | +3.30% | +8.2% | 21.9x | 2.50 | $150.1B |
| CRMSALESFORCE | $184.10 | +4.29% | -4.6% | 11.8x | 1.29 | $144.4B |
| INTUINTUIT | $398.68 | +2.62% | -6.9% | 14.7x | 1.21 | $108.1B |
Key Fundamentals
RSI (14-Day)
52-Week Range
Moving Averages
Price below 200d MA — bearish structure.