Fair Isaac CorporationNYSE: FICO
Information Technology · Application Software
$1,092.63
-3.04%
Vol: 474K
Research Digest
Friday, June 19, 2026
Fair Isaac shares fell 5% on June 17 extending a 27.8% year-to-date decline, though Rate adoption of FICO Score 10T and a small price target raise signal underlying demand.
Fair Isaac Corp shares dropped 5.0% to $1,126.84 on June 17, deepening a 27.8% year-to-date slide that has pushed the stock well below most analyst fair value estimates ranging from $1,552 to $2,075. The selloff follows broader valuation compression in high-multiple software names, though FICO's fundamentals remain intact. A notable positive: Rate (a digital mortgage lender) announced adoption of FICO Score 10T, demonstrating continued penetration of the newer, more predictive scoring model in mortgage lending. Clear Street modestly raised its price target to $1,625 from $1,617. The key risk is that FICO's valuation remains stretched relative to traditional software multiples even after the pullback, and regulatory scrutiny over mortgage scoring fees remains a long-term overhang.
Previous Market Intelligence
13 daysJun 18FICO shares stay under pressure despite mortgage lender Rate adopting FICO Score 10T and a Clear Street price-target bump to $1,625.Mixed▶
In mid-June 2026 Fair Isaac announced that mortgage lender Rate has adopted FICO Score 10T, extending traction for its newer scoring model, and Clear Street nudged its price target to $1,625 from $1,617. Earlier in June the board approved a $2 billion share repurchase program. The stock remains weak, down roughly 28% year-to-date and trading around $1,135, on lingering worries about competition and valuation after a 39% revenue jump in fiscal Q2. The product adoption news supports the bull case for FICO's pricing power and mortgage-score franchise, while the buyback signals management confidence. The risk is that competitive threats (including VantageScore's regulatory push) and a high P/E near 37 keep weighing on sentiment despite strong fundamentals. Next earnings are due August 5, 2026.
Jun 17No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
Jun 16No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
Jun 15No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
Jun 14No significant overnight updatesNeutral▶
No material news in the last 48 hours.
May 21Fair Isaac shares surged 7.6% after strong Q2 results but BofA cut price target to $1,400 on May 19Mixed▶
Fair Isaac reported strong Q2 2026 results with revenue of $691.7M (+39% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $12.50, prompting raised full-year guidance to $2.45B revenue and $35.60 GAAP EPS. Shares rose 7.6% to $1,181.82 on May 18. However, on May 19, Bank of America Securities maintained its Buy rating but cut the price target from $1,550 to $1,400, citing a more cautious stance on valuation. FICO also launched the next-generation UltraFICO Score and secured T-Mobile as a major client. CEO and CFO presented at the Barclays Americas Select Conference on May 5. Risk: valuation remains a concern with the stock trading at elevated multiples in a rising interest rate environment.
May 20FICO World 2026 conference kicks off May 19 in Orlando as BofA cuts price target to $1,400 after Q2 beatMixed▶
Fair Isaac's FICO World 2026 conference began May 19 in Orlando, running through May 22 with 1,500+ attendees from 50+ countries, featuring Sol Rashidi (world's first Chief AI Officer for Enterprise) as keynote on AI-powered enterprise transformation, fraud detection, and risk management. Bank of America maintained its Buy rating on May 19 but cut the price target from $1,550 to $1,400. Q2 fiscal 2026 results showed revenue of $691.7M (+38.7% YoY, beating $642.4M consensus) and GAAP EPS of $11.14 / non-GAAP EPS of $12.50. The company raised full-year guidance to $2.45B revenue and $35.60 GAAP EPS. Software ARR rose 10% with platform ARR up 49% and platform retention at 136%. Shares jumped 7.6% on May 18 to $1,181.82 but remain down 30.1% YTD. CEO Will Lansing presented at Barclays conference May 5.
May 19FICO World 2026 keynote May 19-22 in Orlando opens as shares jump 2.2% on easing 10-year yields, but Eisman short overshadows raised guidance.Mixed▶
FICO World 2026 opens May 19-22 in Orlando with Sol Rashidi (world's first Enterprise Chief AI Officer) keynoting, expected to draw 1,500+ attendees from 50+ countries on themes of AI-powered transformation, fraud detection and risk management. On May 14, 2026, FICO shares jumped 2.2% as the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.46%. Q2 fiscal 2026 results showed GAAP net income of $264.5M ($11.14/share) on revenue of $691.7M (up 39% YoY), with non-GAAP EPS of $12.50; management raised full-year guidance to $2.45B revenue and $35.60 GAAP EPS. The Scores segment surged 60% YoY, driven by aggressive price hikes and a 127% increase in mortgage originations, expanding the operating margin to 91%. Risk: Steve Eisman disclosed a short position that drove a 4.8% one-day drop, and on May 12 shares fell 3.5% to $1,086, signaling growing skepticism around regulatory and pricing-power concerns.
May 18FICO World 2026 conference begins May 19 in Orlando with 1,500+ attendees; shares rose 2.2% on May 14 amid easing Treasury yields.Mixed▶
FICO is hosting its FICO World 2026 conference in Orlando May 19-22, expected to draw 1,500+ attendees from 50+ countries with a focus on AI-powered enterprise transformation. On May 14, 2026, shares jumped 2.2% as the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.46%. The company recently reported strong Q2 FY2026 results with revenue of $691.7M (+39% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $12.50, raising full-year guidance to $2.45B revenue and $35.60 GAAP EPS. Software ARR rose 10% with platform ARR up 49%. The stock continues to face headwinds from Steve Eisman's recently disclosed short position and federal regulatory shifts allowing alternative credit scores.
May 15FICO rallies 2.2% to $1,065 on May 14 as Treasury yields ease; FICO World 2026 kicks off May 19Mixed▶
Fair Isaac shares jumped 2.2% on May 14 to $1,065.49 as the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.46% after a preliminary Trump-Xi agreement to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. The move recovered some ground after a 3.5% drop to $1,086 on May 12 and a recent 4.8% slide tied to short-seller Steve Eisman publicly disclosing a short position. FICO World 2026 takes place May 19-22 in Orlando with 1,500+ attendees from 50+ countries, keynoted by Sol Rashidi on enterprise AI transformation, fraud and risk. Q2 fiscal 2026 results (late April) showed GAAP net income of $264.5M on $691.7M revenue (+39% YoY), with full-year guidance raised to $2.45B revenue and $35.60 GAAP EPS. Heightened scrutiny on the Scores monopoly narrative remains a risk.
May 14FICO shares dropped 3.5% to $1,086 on May 12 amid AI-disruption concerns and Truist holdings reduction; FICO World 2026 set for May 19-22Negative▶
FICO shares fell 3.5% on May 12 to $1,086, with the stock down 48.88% over the past 52 weeks on persistent AI-disruption concerns around its scoring franchise. Truist Financial Corp reduced its holdings, while Rep. Gilbert Cisneros sold shares per a recent disclosure. The FICO World 2026 conference will be held in Orlando May 19-22, with Sol Rashidi as keynote, expecting 1,500+ attendees. Q2 FY26 (reported late April) showed GAAP EPS of $11.14 on $691.7M revenue (+39% YoY), with Software ARR up 10% and platform ARR up 49%; FY26 guidance was raised to $2.45B revenue and $35.60 GAAP EPS.
May 13FICO shares fell 3.5% on May 12 to $1,086 as CEO William Lansing defended the company's mortgage scoring moat at a conference, attributing 15-month stock pressure to political scrutiny in Washington tied to mortgage business.Negative▶
FICO closed at $1,092 on May 11 and slipped 3.5% on May 12 to $1,086, with shares trading $1,081.25-$1,113.14 on May 13. CEO Lansing and CFO Weber addressed investor concerns about political scrutiny of the mortgage scoring business, defended the moat, and touted buybacks and software growth. Shares have lost 48.88% over the past 52 weeks despite an 8.41% one-month gain. The company hosts FICO World 2026 in Orlando May 19-22. Q2 2026 results showed revenue +38.69% YoY to $691.7M and raised full-year guidance to $2.45B revenue and $35.60 GAAP EPS.
May 12FICO stock fell 3.02% on May 11 to $1,092 despite multiple Q2 catalysts including FICO Score 10T launch and FICO World 2026 conference set for May 19-22 in Orlando.Mixed▶
Fair Isaac's stock declined 3.02% on May 11 to $1,092, with the stock at $1,065.62 as of May 5. FICO announced Sol Rashidi as keynote speaker for FICO World 2026 in Orlando May 19-22, expected to draw 1,500+ attendees. The company launched FICO Score 10T, described as the most predictive credit score for mortgage lending. Q2 fiscal 2026 results (reported April 29) showed GAAP net income of $264.5 million ($11.14 EPS) and non-GAAP EPS of $12.50 on revenue of $691.7 million (up 39% YoY), well above $642.4M consensus. The company raised FY26 guidance to $2.45 billion revenue and $35.60 GAAP EPS. Software ARR grew 10% with platform ARR up 49% and 136% retention. Analyst cuts followed: JPMorgan lowered to $1,225 from $1,325, Wells Fargo to $1,400 from $1,650.
Sector Peers
| Company | Price | Day | 1M | Fwd P/E | Beta | Mkt Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FICOFAIR | $1,092.63 | -3.04% | -10.9% | 20.1x | 1.28 | $25.4B |
| ORCLORACLE | $184.72 | +0.65% | -2.1% | 16.9x | 1.66 | $530.0B |
| PLTRPALANTIR | $128.65 | -1.52% | -6.3% | 61.8x | 1.51 | $308.0B |
| APPAPPLOVIN | $469.95 | -1.99% | -2.6% | 21.4x | 2.46 | $157.8B |
| CRMSALESFORCE | $151.46 | -2.30% | -15.7% | 9.8x | 1.15 | $124.3B |
| CDNSCADENCE | $387.46 | -0.55% | +10.4% | 41.3x | 1.15 | $106.8B |
Key Fundamentals
RSI (14-Day)
52-Week Range
Moving Averages
Price below 200d MA — bearish structure.