Automatic Data Processing, Inc logo

Automatic Data Processing, IncNasdaq: ADP

Industrials · Human Resource & Employment Services

$222.01

-0.54%

Vol: 1.7M

Research Digest

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Neutral

No significant overnight updates

No material news in the last 48 hours.

Price 50d 200d

Previous Market Intelligence

13 days
Jun 15No significant overnight updatesNeutral

No material news in the last 48 hours.

Jun 14No significant overnight updatesNeutral

No material news in the last 48 hours.

May 21ADP presents at JPMorgan TMC Conference May 19 following Wells Fargo upgrade and raised FY26 guidancePositive

ADP management presented at the J.P. Morgan Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference on May 19 and is scheduled to present at TD Cowen's 54th Annual Technology Media & Telecom Conference on May 28. Wells Fargo upgraded ADP in mid-May while maintaining a $214 price target. The company recently raised its fiscal 2026 outlook to 6%-7% revenue growth and 10%-11% adjusted EPS growth, citing strong retention, AI-driven productivity, and robust international and compliance bookings. Q3 results showed $5.94B revenue, above consensus of $5.85B. ADP issued $1B of 5% senior notes due 2036 (priced May 4, issued May 7) for general corporate purposes including buybacks. The stock is up about 7% over the past month but down roughly 15% YTD.

May 20ADP presents at J.P. Morgan TMT conference May 19 following $1B senior notes issuance and Wells Fargo upgrade.Positive

Automatic Data Processing presented at the J.P. Morgan 54th Annual Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference on May 19, 2026, capping a busy stretch of capital and analyst activity. Earlier in the month, ADP completed a $1.0 billion senior notes offering at 5.000% due 2036, strengthening long-term financing. Wells Fargo upgraded ADP to Equal Weight from Underweight with a $214 price target, citing its position in cloud HCM. Management has raised FY2026 guidance to +6%-7% revenue growth and +10%-11% adjusted EPS growth, with continued focus on AI-enabled HCM tools. The stock closed at $214.48 on May 15, up about 9% over the past month. Argus and Stifel both trimmed price targets to $240 while keeping their ratings unchanged.

May 19No significant overnight updatesNeutral

No material news in the last 48 hours.

May 18ADP completed a $1 billion 5.000% senior notes offering on May 7 and faces analyst caution after Morgan Stanley cut its price target to $240 from $274 on May 10 amid a 30% YoY equity value decline.Mixed

On May 4, 2026, ADP agreed to issue $1 billion of 5.000% senior notes due 2036, with the notes issued May 7, 2026 under an indenture with U.S. Bank Trust, strengthening long-term financing. ADP reported Q1 CY2026 results that surpassed Wall Street's revenue expectations, with annualized revenue growth of 6.8% over the last two years. ADP's April private-sector payrolls report showed a 109,000 increase, the fastest growth since January 2025 but below the Bloomberg consensus of 120,000. On May 10, 2026, Morgan Stanley lowered ADP's price target to $240 from $274 while reiterating a Hold rating. The stock gained 1.01% on May 12 to $213.81, but the company's equity value of approximately $83 billion in mid-May represents a decline of more than 30% YoY. ADP confirmed June 12 as the ex-dividend date for its next $1.70 quarterly payout (~3.3% yield). ADP will present at the J.P. Morgan Global TMT Conference on May 19 and TD Cowen TMT Conference on May 28.

May 15ADP shares plunged 2.55% on May 14 amid soft April employment report (109K vs 120K est.) as Morgan Stanley cut PT to $240.Negative

ADP shares fell 2.55% on May 14 to $208.36 after the company's April employment report showed private payrolls increased 109,000, below the 120,000 Bloomberg consensus though still the fastest growth since January 2025. The decline was compounded by dovish Federal Reserve signals. Morgan Stanley lowered its price target to $240 from $274 on May 10; Stifel lowered to $240 from $270 keeping a Hold. ADP issued $1B of 5.000% senior notes due 2036 on May 7. Management will present at the J.P. Morgan TMT Conference (May 19) and TD Cowen TMT Conference (May 28). Consensus is Hold with $265.93 PT.

May 14ADP completed a $1B senior notes offering on May 7 but absorbed price target cuts from Morgan Stanley and Argus to $240 in early MayMixed

On May 7, 2026, Automatic Data Processing completed a $1 billion senior notes offering, adding flexibility to its balance sheet. Morgan Stanley lowered its price target to $240 from $274 on May 10, and Argus cut its target to $240 from $300 on May 5, even as the most recent Q3 results showed revenue up 7% year-over-year (6% organic constant currency) to $5.9 billion and adjusted EBIT margin up 80 basis points to 30.2%. ADP shares climbed roughly 4% post-earnings on the beat and raised FY26 outlook, with management citing aggressive AI investments. The stock closed May 12 at $213.81, well off its 52-week high of $329.85. ADP's April employment data showed private payrolls rose 109,000, a sign of labor market resiliency. The divergence between operating execution and analyst sentiment reflects multiple compression. The bear case: a softening labor market would directly reduce pays-per-control growth.

May 13ADP completed a $1B senior notes offering and announced May investor-conference appearances amid Morgan Stanley price target cut to $240.Mixed

On May 7, 2026, ADP completed a $1B offering of 5.000% senior unsecured notes due 2036, strengthening long-term financing. Management will present at the J.P. Morgan TMT Conference on May 19 and TD Cowen TMT Conference on May 28. Morgan Stanley lowered its price target to $240 from $274 on May 10, while consensus rating remains Hold with average PT of ~$266. Q1 CY2026 results beat revenue expectations with adjusted EBIT margin expanding 80bps to 30.2%. ADP National Employment Report showed 109,000 private payrolls added in April, the biggest gain since January 2025.

May 12ADP completes $1B 5.000% senior notes due 2036 offering on May 7 amid analyst price target cuts including Morgan Stanley to $240 from $274.Mixed

ADP completed its $1.0 billion offering of 5.000% senior unsecured notes due 2036 on May 7, 2026, under indenture with U.S. Bank Trust. Morgan Stanley lowered its ADP price target to $240 from $274; 15-analyst consensus is Hold as of May 11, 2026 with average PT of $265.93. ADP management will present at the J.P. Morgan Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference on May 19 and TD Cowen 54th Annual TMT Conference on May 28. Q3 FY26 revenue rose 7% YoY (6% organic) to $5.9B with adjusted EBIT margin expanding 80 bps to 30.2%. ADP National Employment Report showed private payrolls increased 109,000 in April, biggest gain since January 2025 but below 120,000 consensus. Fidelity filed Form 144 on May 8 for proposed sale of 848 shares.

May 11ADP completed a $1 billion senior notes offering at 5.000% due 2036 and reported Q3 revenue up 7% to $5.9B.Mixed

On May 4, 2026, ADP entered into an underwriting agreement to issue $1 billion of 5.000% senior unsecured notes due 2036, with the offering completed May 7, 2026 under an indenture with U.S. Bank Trust. The company reported Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue up 7% year-over-year (6% organic constant currency) to $5.9 billion, with adjusted EBIT margin expanding 80 basis points to 30.2%. ADP's National Employment Report showed private payrolls rose by 109,000 in April, the largest monthly gain since January 2025 but below the 120,000 Bloomberg consensus. Management will present at JPMorgan TMT Conference on May 19 and TD Cowen Conference on May 28. Risk: Stifel cut its price target to $240 from $270, and the stock is reportedly down 28.5% over the past year amid valuation concerns.

May 8ADP Q3 FY2026 beats on $3.38 EPS; issues $1B senior notes at 5.00% due 2036Positive

ADP reported Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue of $5.9B in line with forecasts, with statutory EPS of $3.38 beating 2.3%. April payroll growth hit 109K (fastest since January 2025) though job cuts surged 38% on AI-related downsizing. Company completed $1B senior notes offering at 5.00% due 2036 for corporate purposes and buybacks. Shares rose 9% post-earnings. Analyst consensus target $246 but mixed moves: Jefferies cut to $190 (Underperform) on valuation, UBS trimmed to $210 (Neutral).

May 6Q3 EPS beat by 2.3%; guidance raised; multiple analysts cut targets citing valuation concerns.Mixed

Automatic Data Processing reported Q3 FY2026 revenue of $5.9B in line with forecasts but statutory EPS of $3.38 beat by 2.3%; stock rose 9%. Q3 delivered 7% revenue growth, 80 bps margin expansion, and 10% EPS growth ahead of expectations. Management raised guidance for revenue, margin, and EPS, citing strong retention and AI-driven productivity. Shares trading at $214 (well below 52-week high of $329.93). However, multiple analyst downgrades: Argus cut to $240 from $300; Mizuho to $305 from $332; Jefferies to $190 from $230; Baird to $270 from $300; Stifel to $240 from $270. Valuation concern despite solid fundamentals. 12-month consensus target $267.79 implies 25% upside.

Sector Peers

CompanyPriceDay1MFwd P/EBetaMkt Cap
ADPAUTOMATIC$222.01-0.54%-0.4%18.2x0.84$88.7B
PAYXPAYCHEX$100.24-0.65%+6.1%17.0x$35.9B
PAYCPAYCOM$129.24-4.05%-7.2%10.5x0.79$6.0B
CATCATERPILLAR$947.17+1.42%+9.4%31.4x1.60$435.5B
GEGENERAL$351.57+2.72%+23.0%40.5x1.38$367.5B
GEVGE$981.66+0.26%-3.0%40.1x1.04$264.0B

Key Fundamentals

Market Cap$88.7B
P/E (TTM)20.7
Forward P/E18.2
Beta0.84
Div Yield305.00%
Prev Close$223.22

RSI (14-Day)

63Neutral
0305070100

52-Week Range

$188.16$222.01$315.98
From High-29.7%
From Low+18.0%

Moving Averages

50d SMA
$206.63+7.4%
200d SMA
$248.69-10.7%

Price below 200d MA — bearish structure.

Historical Returns

1W
-0.4%
1M
+9.7%
3M
+3.0%
6M
-11.0%
1Y
-28.7%
YTD
-11.5%

Volume

Today1.7M
20d Avg2.9M
Ratio0.58x