Automatic Data Processing, IncNasdaq: ADP
Industrials · Human Resource & Employment Services
$214.21
+1.07%
Vol: 2.0M
Research Digest
Friday, May 1, 2026
ADP strong Q3 2026 earnings beat with AI-driven efficiency; raises FY guidance and stock up 6%+.
ADP Q3 2026 revenue $5.94B and EPS $3.37 both beat estimates with 7% revenue growth, 80bps margin expansion, and 10% EPS growth. Raised guidance for revenue, margin and EPS, driven by strong retention, AI productivity improvements, and robust international and compliance bookings. AI initiatives like ADP Assist agents delivering significant time savings and productivity. Employer Services retention reached new record highs for third consecutive quarter.
Previous Market Intelligence
13 daysApr 30ADP reports strong Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings with 7% revenue growth, 10% EPS growth; raises FY2026 guidance; stock surges 6.52%.Positive▶
Automatic Data Processing reported strong Q3 fiscal 2026 results on April 29, beating expectations with adjusted EPS of $3.37 (vs. $3.29-$3.30 consensus) and revenue of $5.939 billion (vs. $5.82-$5.91 billion expected). Consolidated revenue grew 7% with 80 basis points of EBIT margin expansion. ADP raised full-year guidance to 6-7% revenue growth and expects 10-11% EPS growth with 70-80 basis points margin expansion. AI initiatives including ADP Assist agents saved payroll agents 30 minutes per payroll and Smart Actions cut clicks/time by 80% for HR tasks. Stock surged 6.52% on April 29 but remains down 15.8% YTD.
Apr 16ADP down 3%; Q2 EPS +11% but faces analyst downgrades and labor market headwindsNegative▶
ADP stock down 3%, hitting 52-week low after analyst downgrades amid Q2 revenue $5.4B (+6% YoY) and EPS $2.62 (+11%). Management raised full-year guidance but private payroll figures missed estimates; job openings at 6-year low. Guggenheim initiated Buy at $270; UBS/BMO lowered targets. Consensus Hold, avg target $280 (+42% upside). Q4 earnings were mixed vs. sector peers.
Apr 15ADP stock down 42% from 52-week high amid weak payroll data and analyst downgrades; Q3 FY2026 earnings due April 29.Negative▶
ADP stock has collapsed 42% from $330 52-week high to $195.38 after disappointing payroll figures and analyst downgrades. Q2 FY2026 showed $5.4B revenue (+6% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $2.62 (+11%), with management raising FY2026 guidance. However, private payroll misses and weakest job openings in 6 years weigh heavily. Consensus Hold rating. Q3 FY2026 earnings due April 29.
Apr 14Automatic Data Processing rebounds 3.5% but remains down 42% from 52-week high at $189, facing macro headwinds.Negative▶
ADP rallied 3.5% on April 13 to $195.38 after touching 52-week lows but remains crushed 42% below $330 peak. Q2 FY2026 showed $5.4B revenue (up 6% YoY) with adjusted EPS up 11% to $2.62. Stock trades below 20/50/200-day MAs. Consensus target of $280 implies 43.31% upside despite Hold rating.
Apr 13Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings scheduled for April 29; stock deeply oversold after Q4 miss despite positive March employment data.Negative▶
ADP faces headwinds from slower employment growth (49K monthly average in 2025 vs. prior expectations), with the stock down 18.5% post-earnings. March private sector hiring totaled 62K, better than expected. The stock's RSI sits below 30, signaling deep oversold conditions. Analyst consensus is Hold with average 12-month target of $285.71 representing 49.7% upside.
Apr 10ADP beats Q2 earnings with raised guidance but stock faces pressure from broader market concerns.Mixed▶
ADP exceeded Q2 forecasts with EPS of $2.62 vs $2.57 and revenue $5.4B vs $5.34B. Raised outlook projecting ~6% consolidated revenue growth and 9-10% adjusted EPS growth. March ADP employment rose 62K (+4.5% YoY pay). Stock at $204.38 trading steadily. Guggenheim initiated Buy rating.
Apr 9ADP launches AI agents marketplace while Oak Thistle LLC acquires new stake; dividend raised to $1.70.Mixed▶
Automatic Data Processing announced an 18.5% stock plunge following Q4 earnings that missed sector expectations despite beating absolute targets, driven by data privacy concerns and macroeconomic headwinds. The company raised its quarterly dividend to $1.70, marking the 51st consecutive increase. ADP launched a curated AI agents marketplace on March 2, 2026, enabling employers to discover and deploy partner-built agents for HR and payroll automation. Employment data showed private-sector employment rose 63,000 in February with 4.5% median pay increase. Oak Thistle LLC acquired a new stake worth approximately $3.43 million. FY2026 EPS projected at $10.96, up 9.5% from prior year.
Apr 8Automatic Data Processing beats guidance with AI marketplace expansion despite insider selling concernsMixed▶
Automatic Data Processing reported Q2 2026 results with EPS of $2.62 (vs $2.57 expected) and revenue of $5.4B (vs $5.34B expected), while raising full-year guidance to 6% consolidated revenue growth and 9-10% adjusted EPS growth. The company launched AI agents marketplace on March 2, 2026 to help employers automate multistep HR workflows. ADP increased dividend to $1.70, marking 51st consecutive increase. However, stock declined 3.36% pre-market despite earnings beat, and mixed hiring signals with private-sector employment up 63K in February and median pay for stayers up 4.5% YoY raise caution. Momentum readings show bearish MACD signals.
Apr 7ADP Q2 FY2026 beats estimates with 11% EPS growth; Morgan Stanley cuts PT to $274 despite AI momentumMixed▶
Automatic Data Processing reported Q2 FY2026 EPS $2.62 (beat $2.57 consensus), revenue $5.36B (beat $5.34B). Organic revenue +6% YoY, adjusted EPS +11%. FY2026 guidance: $10.09-11.01 EPS. Board authorized $6B share buyback (January 14). Launched AI agents in ADP Marketplace (March 2) automating HR/payroll/talent tasks. Morgan Stanley cut PT to $274 (from $311) with Equal Weight; Cantor Fitzgerald initiated Overweight with $306 PT. Stock down 3.36% pre-market despite beats, trading $204.01 (-$0.08 AH). Analyst consensus: Hold with $285.71 PT (+39% upside).
Apr 6ADP beats Q2 2026 estimates; raises 2026 guidance with strong revenue and EPS growthPositive▶
Automatic Data Processing exceeded Q2 2026 forecasts with EPS of $2.62 (vs $2.57 est.) and revenue of $5.4B (vs $5.34B est.) on January 28, 2026. The company raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to 9-11% growth from prior forecast. Revenue increased 6% YoY with adjusted EPS up 11% and EBIT margin expanding 80 basis points. ADP launched AI agents marketplace on March 2, 2026, to help employers discover and deploy partner-built automation tools. March 2026 ADP National Employment Report showed U.S. private sector job growth of 62,000 with 4.5% YoY pay growth for job-stayers. Board authorized $6B stock buyback on January 14. Stock trades at $204.01 (52-week low near $197) but analyst consensus is Buy with $264.40 PT (+29.6% upside). Despite stock weakness from 28% decline, undervaluation at 20x earnings and strong AI momentum position ADP favorably.
Apr 3ADP reports March payroll beat (+62k private sector) and launches AI Agent Marketplace for HR automation.Mixed▶
Automatic Data Processing reported Q2 EPS of $2.62 (beat $2.57) with revenue of $5.36B. March National Employment Report showed +62k private sector jobs. ADP launched AI Agent Marketplace in March 2026 integrating employment data for HR workflow automation. Wells Fargo lowered PT to $214 (Underweight), but Guggenheim initiated Buy.
Apr 2ADP March private payroll increase of 62,000 beat expectations, but Wells Fargo downgraded to Underweight with $214 target as stock hits 52-week lows.Mixed▶
ADP reported March private payroll growth of 62,000 with annual pay up 4.5%, supporting continued demand for payroll and HR services. However, the stock hit a new 52-week low near $197-$198 amid analyst concerns. Wells Fargo cut its price target from $262 to $214 and set an Underweight rating on March 27, 2026, citing economic headwinds. Guggenheim initiated Buy coverage with a $270 target price. Q1 fiscal 2025 earnings beat with $2.62 EPS (est. $2.57) and revenue of $5.36B (est. $5.34B). ADP's board authorized a $6 billion stock buyback. Consensus analyst rating is Hold with a 12-month target of $285.71 (+39.05% upside).
Apr 1ADP research reveals only 22% of global workers feel secure in jobs as company updated FY2026 guidance to 6% revenue and 9-10% EPS growth.Mixed▶
ADP released Today at Work 2026 report highlighting widespread worker anxiety about job security amid AI adoption. The company updated 2026 guidance to 6% revenue growth and 9-10% adjusted EPS growth. Guggenheim initiated with Buy rating and $270 target, while UBS maintained Hold at $220.
Sector Peers
| Company | Price | Day | 1M | Fwd P/E | Beta | Mkt Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADPAUTOMATIC | $214.21 | +1.07% | +3.7% | 17.5x | 0.86 | $84.9B |
| PAYXPAYCHEX | $93.10 | +0.51% | +0.8% | 15.7x | — | $33.2B |
| PAYCPAYCOM | $131.80 | +3.98% | +3.1% | 10.9x | 0.80 | $6.9B |
| CATCATERPILLAR | $890.93 | +0.09% | +23.4% | 31.8x | 1.52 | $414.2B |
| GEGENERAL | $287.56 | -0.82% | +0.4% | 33.4x | 1.43 | $302.9B |
| GEVGE | $1,064.74 | -1.73% | +20.7% | 44.2x | 1.20 | $291.1B |
Key Fundamentals
RSI (14-Day)
52-Week Range
Moving Averages
Price below 200d MA — bearish structure.