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Geopolitics · Insider Trading · Market Manipulation · Regulatory Risk
Anonymous traders executed huge, well-timed bets on prediction platforms and options markets, including $580 million in oil futures, just minutes before President Trump's surprise policy announcements, prompting market watchers to warn of a pattern while the White House denies any wrongdoing.
The pattern includes a $580 million oil-futures trade 15 minutes before Trump delayed strikes on Iranian energy targets, and over 150 Polymarket accounts placing four-figure bets before the first U.S. strike on Iran. Another anonymous user turned $32,000 into over $400,000 on Polymarket by betting on Nicolás Maduro's capture before the U.S. military's Caracas operation was announced.
Multi-million-dollar options bets also occurred before Trump paused tariffs for 90 days in April 2025. White House spokesperson Kush Desai and counsel David Warrington brand suggestions of officials profiting from nonpublic information as "baseless and irresponsible." Critics, including House Democrats, demand scrutiny, citing the administration's consideration of gutting the Justice Department’s Public Integrity Section, which fell from 36 to 2 lawyers, and the SEC’s enforcement chief quitting after clashing over cases touching Trump’s orbit.
Public Citizen reports 159 enforcement actions against 166 companies with Trump administration links were canceled or frozen.
Plus, Trump orders a more low-key approach to mass deportations.
