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Fiscal Policy · Gilts · Sterling · UK Politics
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned, creating immediate market certainty and leading to a recovery in Sterling and UK government bond yields after months of speculation.
Andy Burnham is widely expected to replace Starmer, confirming his leadership bid for the ruling Labour Party, while Wes Streeting announced he would not stand. Sterling rose 0.1% to $1.3243 and 0.8649 per euro, while ten-year gilt yields fell 3.2 basis points to 4.808%, according to Tradeweb data.
Capital Economics' Ruth Gregory stated markets largely shrugged off the news, as Starmer's departure was expected. However, analysts express concern over potential expansive fiscal policies under Burnham, which Jefferies' Mohit Kumar suggests could worsen public finances.
The choice of the next treasury chief is critical, with markets seeking similar fiscal commitment as incumbent Rachel Reeves. Morningstar's Michael Field notes a popular candidate like Burnham improves investor perception, but Monex Europe analysts and eToro's Lale Akoner highlight ongoing fiscal challenges, citing May's public sector borrowing at £23.3 billion ($30.8 billion), 30% higher year-on-year, indicating future budgets keep sterling and gilts vulnerable.