Goldman Sachs Lifts Oil Forecasts on Hormuz Risk

The bank now assumes oil shipments through the critical Middle Eastern chokepoint will operate at just 5% of normal capacity for a prolonged six-week period, a more severe and sustained disruption than previously expected. Goldman Sachs anticipates restoring flows will take an additional month thereafter.

This revised scenario reflects a reassessment of geopolitical risks in the region, with ongoing conflict raising the probability of extended supply outages. Beyond the near-term disruption, Goldman Sachs highlighted longer-term structural shifts, noting the high concentration of global production and spare capacity in a small number of countries.

This dynamic is expected to drive a more sustained risk premium in oil prices and encourage increased strategic stockpiling by governments and market participants. The Brent 2026 forecast is up from $77, and WTI from $72.