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Canada · Exports · GDP · Trade Surplus
Canada's goods-trade surplus expanded to a 15-month high of C$2.72 billion (US$1.95 billion) in April, exceeding economists' expectations of C$2.55 billion, driven by record exports of crude oil and vehicles to the United States, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This significant increase follows a revised C$1.75 billion surplus in March, marking two surpluses in the last seven months. The surge in exports, up 1.6% month-over-month to a record C$75.16 billion, was primarily fueled by higher energy prices due to the war in Iran and robust shipments of passenger cars and light trucks to the U.S. In volume terms, exports continued their rise, indicating that net trade will contribute positively to quarterly gross domestic product, countering earlier economic drag.
Imports also reached a record C$75.44 billion, an increase of 0.3%. While trade with the U.S. strengthened, widening the bilateral surplus to C$9.48 billion, exports to non-U.S. countries declined 4.8%, largely due to a drop in gold shipments to the U.K., despite record exports to China.
This data supports Statistics Canada's flash estimate of a 0.4% GDP rise in April, alleviating concerns of a recession. The Bank of Canada's governing council is widely expected to maintain current interest rates at its upcoming decision, balancing a sluggish economy against inflation risks from rising oil prices.
CIBC Capital Markets senior economist Andrew Grantham notes that lingering tariff uncertainty from the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal renegotiation may temper future trade momentum.
