Canada's March Jobs Modest, BoC Holds Steady

Economists, including CIBC's Andrew Grantham, expected a larger rebound, noting the 6.7% unemployment rate remains elevated. Job gains were seen in "other services," professional, scientific, and technical services, natural resources, and tariff-sensitive manufacturing, while finance, insurance, real estate, leasing, and food and accommodations sectors experienced losses.

Year-over-year, manufacturing shed 44,000 positions since March 2025 due to U.S. tariffs. Average hourly wages rose 4.7% year-over-year, the fastest pace since October 2024, though Statistics Canada attributes some of this to compositional factors, with the underlying growth at 3.6%.

Despite a soft labour market, the Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% at its April 29 decision, with LSEG Data & Analytics showing nearly 93% odds for a hold, primarily due to inflationary pressures from the Iran war energy shock, as noted by TD Bank's Andrew Hencic.