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AI · Earnings · Lithography · Semiconductors
ASML reported record Q4 2025 bookings of €13.2 billion, more than doubling analyst expectations, driven by robust AI infrastructure demand and memory chip shortages, leading to an upgraded 2026 revenue guidance and a significant share buyback program.
The Dutch chip equipment giant's €13.2 billion ($15.8 billion) in bookings significantly surpassed analyst expectations of €6.32 billion, marking its strongest order quarter ever. ASML's 2026 revenue guidance of €34-39 billion, with the midpoint comfortably above the €35.1 billion consensus estimate, represents a clear upgrade from previous cautious forecasts.
This surge is primarily fueled by the accelerating AI infrastructure buildout and an unprecedented memory chip shortage, compelling major memory makers like Samsung and SK Hynix to invest heavily in capacity expansion; Barclays analysts expect SK Hynix alone to order 12 EUV machines in 2026. Despite a projected decline in China revenue to 20% of total sales in 2026 from 33% in 2025 due to export restrictions, the overwhelming demand from other regions, particularly from customers like TSMC, ensures ASML's continued growth.
The company also announced a €12 billion share buyback program running through December 2028, reflecting strong management confidence in the business trajectory.
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