VST

AI Research

VST Q4 EPS $2.13 Misses Estimate → Full-Year EBITDA $5.91B Exceeds Guidance, Buy PT $234.37

Vistra Energy reported Q4 2025 EPS of $2.13, missing the $2.33 forecast by 8.6%, with revenue of $4.58 billion falling 13.6% short of the $5.3 billion estimate and triggering a 5.34% pre-market stock decline; however, full-year adjusted EBITDA of $5.912 billion exceeded the guidance midpoint, validating the company's nuclear and natural gas power generation mix. The company expanded its Texas battery aggregation program on March 5 to support grid reliability and declared a $0.23 quarterly dividend with an ex-date of March 20, 2026, while the stock trades at $158.95. Risks include the stock sitting 27.7% below its 52-week high of $219.82 and ongoing quarterly earnings volatility, though 12 analysts maintain a Buy consensus at an average price target of $234.37, suggesting significant upside from current levels.