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Geopolitical tensions boost nitrogen prices → CF surges 14%, Barclays raises PT to $120

CF Industries posted a massive 14.03% rally on March 12, its biggest jump since 2020, driven by geopolitical tensions disrupting nitrogen exports through the Strait of Hormuz and elevating fertilizer prices. Q4 2025 earnings beat expectations with EPS of $2.59 vs $2.47 consensus and revenue of $1.872B vs $1.78B estimate, while Barclays raised price target to $120 from $100 citing nitrogen supply tightness. With control over 40% of North American nitrogen market and $1.7B returned to shareholders in 2025 via $350M in debt reduction, the company benefits from constrained global supply.

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