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Capacity · Freight Rates · Supply Chain · Trucking
US truckload spot freight rates are at levels not seen since 2022, signaling a potential end to the prolonged three-year freight recession as capacity rationalization and rising load-to-truck ratios empower carriers.
The US trucking industry experienced a prolonged freight recession for nearly three years following a pandemic-induced boom. Spot rates hovered around 2020 levels for 24 months despite steady capacity removal.
In late 2025 and early 2026, AlixPartners observed a revival with spot rates rising and approaching contract rates, indicating a market inflection point. This upward movement is broad-based across modes and geographies, with reefer equipment spot rates even exceeding contract pricing.
Capacity rationalization is a critical driver, with trucking companies reducing fleet sizes, delaying new truck purchases, or exiting the market, as exemplified by Quickway's bankruptcy. Regulatory changes, such as the U.S. Department of Transportation stopping CDL issuance to certain non-citizens, further constrain the driver pool.
The van load-to-truck ratio has steadily climbed since 2023, and load rejection rates are near 10%, indicating increased carrier leverage. While recent increases were partially attributed to severe winter weather and new U.S. tariff uncertainty adds volatility, AlixPartners suggests these developments are unlikely to cause a material shift in durable demand.
Shippers must prepare for a shifting market by reassessing contract exposure, strengthening carrier relationships, and monitoring lane-level volatility. The balance of power is slowly recalibrating.
