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Consumer Sentiment · Inflation · US Dollar · US Economy
The University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index flash estimate for June rose to 48.9 from 44.8 in May, surpassing market expectations of 46, while the one-year Inflation Expectation component edged lower to 4.6% from 4.8%.
The Consumer Expectations Index also improved to 49.3 from 44.1, exceeding analysts' estimates of 44.3. UoM attributed the slight uptick to some relief from early-month easing in gasoline prices, but noted that overall views of the economy remain "dour." Sentiment is currently 13% below January 2026 and 19% below a year ago, as consumers remain focused on "kitchen table issues" and worry about persistent inflation.
Interviews for this release were completed between May 19 and June 8. Despite the slight improvement, the index remains near historic lows, reflecting ongoing consumer struggles with the higher cost of living.
Consumption accounts for about 70% of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), making this a critical forward-looking indicator. The US Dollar (USD) Index showed no immediate reaction to the data, posting marginal gains at 99.75, supported by safe-haven demand amid Middle East conflict and expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes.
